User:Tennessee Ernie Ford/Shortcuts/IotW Predictions

= Item of the Week Predictions =

Check out User:Kanda/Nicholas and Guild Wiki — I follow (and borrow) heavily from the first and use the latter to help identify patterns.

Using this article to farm
What does all this Nick data mean?


 * Almost all of Nick's requests are locally farmable trophies. &rarr; save up any of the more than a dozen items that are found in zones with only one or two unrequested trophies; most of them should end up being requested by Nick.
 * The non-trophy items of Nick are too few in number to suggest patterns, but it won't surprise me if Nick wants Volcanic Rock and/or Moa Eggs.
 * 40+ items can only be found in one zone. Should we hoard them? If you have room, absolutely. If not, note that many of these show up in zones with several other possibilities. Focus instead on the zones with only a few remaining items.
 * Alternatively, save the trophies on the list that drop infrequently
 * e.g. we know how hard it is to farm Mandragor, so save the Fibrous Mandragor Root.
 * In contrast, Charr Carvings only appear in two of the remaining zones, but there are plenty of places to farm them &rarr; if you are running out of storage, drop the Charrvings in favor of something else.

Trophy and location patterns

 * Statistics based on remaining zones

19 zones remain (without an official visit from Nick)


 * 4 zones have no remaining trophies (Battle Depths, Scoundrel's Rise, Shenzun Tunnels, Sunward Marches)
 * 4 zones have only one unrequested trophy (Celestial Essence, Charr Carving, Geode, Krait Skin)
 * 3 zones have only two unrequested trophies (Ancient Eye, Dolyak Hide, Ebon Spider Leg, Frigid Heart, Kraken Eye, Luxon Pendant)
 * 4 zones have six or more potential items.

55 trophies remain (that can be collected in those zones)
 * Statistics based on remaining trophies


 * About two-thirds of those trophies can only be found in one zone.
 * The others can be found in two zones.
 * Nothing is left than can be found in more than two zones.

Other principles

 * Nick seems interested in hatching a Black Moa Chick: He has asked for the Juni Berry branch, skree wings (for nesting material), Herring, and Spiritwood. (He himself has a plentiful collection of honeycombs.) That leaves only moa eggs (hardened or not), volcanic rock, and steel. (Plus, he should ask for something to protect him from the Iron Forgeman and negotiate his way through Sorrow's Furnace.)
 * He also seems to like Canthan New Years ingredients (of the 22 possibles, Nick has requested 9: Alpine Seed, Azure Crest, Azure Remains, Dragon Root, Guardian Moss, Icy Lodestone, Naga Hide, Tangled Seed, and Truffle). (This leaves five items on the highly probably list: Celestial Essence, Kraken Eye, Ebon Spider Leg, and Mantis Pincer; it also leaves nine items unlikely to be requested: Archaic Kappa Shell, Bonesnap Shell, Ebon Spider Web, Fiery Crest, Half-Eaten Blob, Igneous Spider Leg, Iridescent Griffon Wing, Smoking Remains, and Unctuous Remains.)
 * He has some special hatred for Djinni (or love for their drops): he has collected Diamond, Ruby, Sapphire, and Water Djinn Essence. (Somehow Immolated Djinn were spared.)

By trophy

 * I have removed trophies if they were collected in order to fulfill a derivative request of Nicks, e.g. Bog Skale Fins are not on the list because Nick collected Herring (the collector's item derived from the fins).

= Permission to edit =