Talk:Miniature Polar Bear

This encourages players to buy from RMTs

 * This is encouraging a lot of people to go against their principles and buy in-game wealth through sites like EBay and gwgold.

If you think that's not true, you haven't gone to Kamadan and put in trade chat "WTS Mini Polar Bear!". The amount of PM's you get is not something one line of text should ever achieve.

You talk about people being satisfied Gaile, but hear me out. For every person that was HAPPY about this surprise I can name you at least 5 others WHO WERE NOT, because they CANNOT ACQUIRE THIS PET REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH WEALTH THEY HAVE OR EVER WILL HAVE. For every 1 of those HAPPY people, I can also name you 2 more that would BUY GOLD WITH REAL MONEY just to have this pet! I am not blaming you Gaile, I am blaming the idiots at anet who thought this would be a great idea.

This bear's rarity, in its current state, will continue to encourage more and more people to turn to RL money and violation of the EULA. Some people are happy, but A LOT MORE ARE NOT. As it is, there is no chance in HELL even somebody farming HM Domain of Anguish 24/7 could ever hope to acquire this in less than one year.

To ANet - you are wealthy, you probably don't give a shit about the playerbase for this game anymore. But if you do, listen to us and MAKE THIS ATTAINABLE OUTSIDE WINTERSDAY.--Slic 18:57, 11 February 2008 (UTC)
 * It really does seem like Anet has long forgotten their motto of "A game based on skill, not time played." Instead of trying to extend the game's lifespan through new quests, items, and innovations through pvp and pve, all we seem to be getting as of late is reasons to grind.  Grind for this rare skin. Grind for this title. Grind for this rare pet.


 * I personally would much rather have some new form of pvp, or some new quests, or something along those lines, rather than what has been happening. Grind is fine for those who love it, but it seems anet has forgotten those of us that dont. How does everyone else feel?--Ryudo 19:07, 11 February 2008 (UTC)

What you said is a given. Most of us veteran players have been watching this game degenerate into a watered-down grindfest for quite some time. once Smash Bros Brawl comes out, I probably will leave GW permanently, and, depending on my last impressions, will or WILL NOT buy gw2.

This game has been getting watered down so that the retard lemmings who want to have everything in exchange for just TIME or REAL MONEY can have their way. This IS a very popular mentality (I have dubbed it The Lemming Syndrome), and one that usually yields the most profit in terms of business/total players to an online game company. Unfortunately, this is the same mentality that WoW has and it has always discouraged creativity, innovation and the desire to PAY ATTENTION and LEARN FASTER, instead of failing again and again until you get it right.

This bear is no exception, it is one of the many symptoms of The Lemming Syndrome.
 * Don't insult lemmings... -- Lemming [[Image:User Lemming64 sigicon.png]] 21:37, 11 February 2008 (UTC)
 * Lol, but yeah I kinda miss the non-grind days :(. Been here since May 05, and kinda agree, GW has had quite a bit of grind added to it. When I bought NF, and brought my War over and saw the Advance to X sunspear rank to continue quest (Way back when, you had to do this even with foreign characters), and smelled trouble brewing =P. EoTN was fun, but seriously...soooo much grind haha. Of course the books helped quite a bit, but even still, takes quite a bit of grinding to get to even R7 in any title track. While I'm excited for brawl of course haha, I'm certainly not gonna quit GW, and am most likely gonna buy GW2. But Anet hear our plea! Don't make GW2 grindtastic! -Warior kronos 00:26, 2 March 2008 (UTC)

I dunno about the bear or whatnot, but i do know that the entire reason i started to play GW was because there was NO grind. then I see an announcement that says that GW2 will have possibly no lvl cap? Really that ruins the game for me because i hate having to spend time doing nothing but killing monsters and repeating quests to advance in the game. for this reason i think that nightfall is a horrible game to start a character in simply because it REQUIRES grind. I love factions despite what the masses may say because i can max a char in 1 day if i feel like it and then have the freedom to go anywhere i want as apposed to sitting on istan killing monsters for points, killing monsters for points, killing monsters for points, killing monsters for points. really i dont care if GW2 has no lvl cap, as long as you dont get anything other than skill points for any lvl above 20. if it does anet can count me out, because grind SUCKS!!!!!! Kraken 04:19, 6 March 2008 (UTC)
 * Err, move to gw2 speculations/rage/hopes/wishlist/fags_doing_the_last_four_things?--Ʀєʟʟɑ 04:36, 7 April 2008 (UTC)


 * The thing is, I dont mind grind all that much as long as Im not forced to do it. Lets see...Ive been playing Guild Wars myself since November 2005. Ive clocked in over 3,000 hours play time since then, so I guess im a fairly hardcore player. I have all the games, have beaten all of said games, and I have participated in every aspect of guild wars, from soloing, to high end farming, to pvp, etc,etc.  Surprisingly, what I like the most is the low end stuff. I perfer AB and FA to RA and HA (god I hate HA), and prefer helping new players in Ascalon to making a high end FoW run any day. But what Anet has begun to do with Nightfall and EotN is cater more to those players that DO like the grind. The ones that DO get the FoW, all the sets of 15k, and those KoaBD titles.  And although I have all this play time in, and that I have over 600k on my account, and havent fallen below 400k in over a year, I hate grind. Hate it. Hell, I only have one full set of 15k armor over my entire account, and only 2 of my characters have any 15k armor period.

I guess what im trying to say is, Anet is thinking that all of the veteran players like grind, because most of the long term players like me are either high end GvG or HA people, or have all these fancy titles and armors. Im just afraid that people like me that enjoy being experts (yeah, Im comfortable with calling myself that) at this game without buying into the grind and the sway and everything else, will have no place in GW2....--Ryudo 04:55, 7 April 2008 (UTC)
 * Some people like grind, some people don't. Anet caters to both camps quite well if you ask me. -- Lemming [[Image:User Lemming64 sigicon.png]] 15:02, 7 April 2008 (UTC)

i am HIGHLY against these opinions. i, myself, have over 20,000e + 10 everlasting tonics + high-end mini's worth 1000e+. this amount of gold is NOT hard to get. it's as simple as one little thing: powerselling. for example: buy a greased lightning for 450e and resell for 650-700e. BAM! a 300e+ profit. don't go assuming that everyone goes out and "dupes" or buys gold with money. you'd be surprised how many people in-game who are loaded out the ass aquired all of their wealth without spending a single penny on gold from a website. --Uchiha Lena 06:31, 23 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Powerselling is a good thing, but it takes a while to get enough to get started. You say yourself its easy! Just buy something for 350e and sell for 650e. But the fact is that most players don't have 350e to start, let alone 100e. It comes back to the idea of grind. You're going to need to grind to get started off, even if you are the most economist in the game. This game used to have all its elements fairly casually friendly. Except for FoW, if you played through the game, selling drops and getting lucky once or twice, you had enough for 15k armor. Everyone was happy. If you really wanted to go high end and grind and be hardcore, you could buy FoW, or a rare item with perf stats. Now? Grind, grind grind away for high end stuff. I still can't get over the fact that Anet actually made us grind freaking rep for armor. -70.23.216.130 21:32, 31 October 2008 (UTC)
 * By just completing the storyline you're halfway there for all four factions. If you fancy an armour, turn in the book and you'll be way past the requirement for bying the armour. That's not grind.
 * - Kherec 16:46, 20 December 2008 (UTC)
 * 20,000e? GTFO with that bs...that would take your entire xunlai box up with stacks. That would mean you made a little less than 2 ecto an hour every hour since you started playing GW...don't be ridiculous.  98.219.48.111 19:47, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * ...powerselling.... - JoPe [[Image:User Jope12 sigicon.png]] Talk  01:38, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah the parasites of GW. Ripping off the ignorant (or haggling them into submission) isn't exactly a reputable way to get rich.  98.219.48.111 16:16, 23 December 2008 (UTC)

Umm, ou don't have to try to get the bear if you don't want it, dude. GW isn't about having little creatures follow you around, It's about having fun. Go do PvP or PvE or whatever is most fun for you. Grind in GW is almost non-existent when you don't force yourself to do it. And by the way, about GW2, even if the level cap is unlimited, there will be a point when you stop getting benifits for gaining levels, and it just earns you skill points, or is a way of displaying your experience at the game. Say, for example, that the level cap is 100. When I hit level 30, I begin to receive smaller and smaller rewards for advancing, untill at level 40, I get only skill points, and nothing else other than a higher number floating above my head than before. I think you guys just need to calm down, and go out there and play Guild Wars. Not buy items in Guild Wars.--70.71.240.170 17:20, 24 December 2008 (UTC)

GW requires no grinding. you don't need grinding to have the best armor nor to have max damage weapons, griding is optional, only if you want to have that fancy elite armor or a rare skin for a weapon, you don't need these to be good at the game.

To the guy who forgot to sign the comment above, GW also does not require you to play it at all, SCNR. I have problems with extremely rare grinding rewards and repetitive actions to gain some achievements or fancy gear in Guild Wars. This is just bad design, and I wonder what happened to the skill over time and no grind required mantras. All they have to offer for players who "finished" the content is serious grind that you do not see in World of Warcraft for instance. I wonder if this really adds to the longevity of the game to make people grind for rare items over the holidays. Those who do not try because they do not want to grind over xmas feel they miss out. Put the bear in the same basket as some of their more ridiculous title/achievement ideas and the ways to acquire/farm them! Just thinking of AFKing a whole festival in certain nine rings. This is not the pinnacle of game design, rather the opposite. --91.9.104.219 13:42, 31 December 2008 (UTC)

Your comment is so invalid, Erasculio, it hurts my head. If developers weren't so focused on adding grind to their games, would be a better statement...
 * You said it yourself. Some players have finished the content...So there's no point for those players to continue to play. This isn't WoW; if you stop playing, you won't be paying a monthly fee, and Arena Net won't be losing money. That's why players who don't want to grind don't have to grind - they can play the content, stop, come back whenever they want and continue to play. At the same time, there are some players who want to grind, and so Arena Net has added content for those players, too. We keep seeing players complaining that there are no truly rare items in the game, or that the only real items were given through out-of-game ways (the limited minipets). Now Arena Net has listened to those players and created a new rare item that is available only by grinding in game, instead of being a reward from a magazine or something else limited to a few specific countries.
 * So do you want the Mini Polar Bear to be more common? There are players who want the MPB to continue to be as rare as it is, and their voice is as important as yours. In the end, Arena Net is simply trying to please everyone by having both items easy to get and very cheap, and items hard to get requiring a lot of grind. As long as those rare items don't give any in-game advantage such as higher damage and are not used for player discrimination, there isn't any problem with them.
 * (I don't have one, and I don't want one - have never been a fan of minipets myself. I also would never waste my time grinding so much, especially in the middle of a big ingame event and a big holiday outside of the game. Those who like to farm must be very happy with the MPB, since it's a great excuse for farming. And those who don't like to farm but are doing it anyway...That's pretty much your choice. If people who don't like to grind weren't so willing to waste their time doing so, games today would likely focus more on content and less on grind.) Erasculio 15:28, 31 December 2008 (UTC)
 * "If people who don't like to grind weren't so willing to waste their time doing so, games today would likely focus more on content and less on grind."
 * As I understand it, GW wasn't so grindy in the beginning... then they brought out titles.... then they brought out more ridicilously rare minis, rare skins... then they added skills that get stronger the more you grind titles... you know... that kind of grind they LOVE to add ...
 * Just an fyi: Grind is a game lengthening device used by developers... 000.00.00.00  20:17, 24 January 2010 (UTC)

Where Have All the Miniature Polar Bear's Gone?
So I'm eagerly awaiting this years wintersday event to hopefully *crosses fingers throws salt rubs rabbit foot kisses horseshoe and picks up penny* farm my own polar bear..

But that got me thinking... where did all the current polar bears go? I use to see one in town every now and again but that was months and months ago... I don't think I've seen one in game since last winter..

Anyways heres hoping the market gets drenched with em(ok maybe not I still want it to be really rare) or I amazingly get 1(yeah right with my luck) haha -- O Frost O  06:05, 8 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Honestly, this is kind of ridiculous. To have a pet so widely wanted and so adorable only available to the super-elite of the Guild Wars community is quite cruel and certainly not in the holiday spirit. I don't love super-rare pets anyway, but if you have to have them, don't make them the ones so widely requested as these. Obviously they shouldn't go the mini-pig route, but making them available to most at Wintersday, as a reward for completing all the holiday quests perhaps would be a nice change. That is really in the spirit of Wintersday, not grinding the same thing over and over again. I heard a story last year about some guild whose guild leader collected mini pets and was sick. This guild, in a total act of selflessness, grinded this quest over and over again for some 5 hours + and still didn't get a single drop. 20 people + for 3 hours (assuming some exaggeration), with not one drop of this adorable little pet? That does not sound like a game I want to play. - Warior Kronos [[Image:User_Warior_Kronos_Sig.jpg|18px|]] 00:10, 9 December 2008 (UTC)


 * I guess the rarity makes it more exciting when we do actually get one(ok so maybe the "when" is more of an "if") but I guess that adds to the excitemen of the hunt. Funny thing now after I made this post.. I saw a polar bear pop out of hibernation in town today =p -- O Frost O [[Image:User_O_Frost_O_Sig.GIF‎]] 06:35, 9 December 2008 (UTC)
 * 0_0 Where do you live haha? And perhaps it's a sign of things to come :)- Warior Kronos [[Image:User_Warior_Kronos_Sig.jpg|18px|]] 22:36, 10 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Protip: Don't grind for the bear, then. Nobody is forcing you, it is not mandatory to ANY part of the game. If the low drop rate makes you sick, take your medicine and stop trying to get it. Briareus 00:40, 24 December 2008 (UTC)

2008 talk
throw in any info u find during the 2008 event. if u see one. drops and what quests. thanks.
 * I've been doing Strength of snow for about 6 hours, does this ^$#%$@ thing exist?
 * It exists. The drop rate is just extremely low. --79.171.74.8 08:09, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Farm it for 16 hours each day for the rest of the event and you might have a 1% chance of getting one. 66.190.15.232 09:04, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * I have seen one in Kamadan. I believe the quest Straight to the Heart has more chances to give the pet, simply because has much more enemies to kill, even with allies, if enemies priority is you, you'll die much faster. Besides this quest is harder than the other and will take longer to complete. Anyway this is just a feeling based on what i said in the last phrase. -- Inflame 14:20, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * 1% would be fantastic odds, sadly I think its much much lower. 98.219.48.111 15:35, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Not 1% per run, 1% over the course of 200+ hours trying... --66.190.15.232 16:12, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Phiieeuuwww..been at it since the Rift Wardens appeared. No such luck yet :S. -- S ilverleaf   [[Image:User Silverleaf sig.png]] Don't assume, Know! 17:53, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Haha! Join the club! --King Of Kamelott [[Image:User_KingOfKamelott_sig.png|15px|Talk Page]] 18:26, 21 December 2008 (UTC)

I fail at making userboxes, but now we're an official club! --King Of Kamelott  18:46, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * That makes it look like you got one in the end. =x --66.190.15.232 22:18, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm hoping I will :). --King Of Kamelott [[Image:User_KingOfKamelott_sig.png|15px|Talk Page]] 23:07, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Maybe make two variantions: "and got really lucky" and "didn't get one, like everyone else" --81.165.106.233 23:23, 21 December 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm just happy i get 5 items fom the chest :P the polar bear seems more like a little extra ;) By the way thats a nice user box, how would one add such to ones user page? (Ixillius)
 * One would need to type, on ones user page. --King Of Kamelott  [[Image:User_KingOfKamelott_sig.png|15px|Talk Page]] 00:45, 22 December 2008 (UTC)
 * One is very gratefull for this information granted here today (Ixillius)
 * I have farmed for the mini bear since the rift wardens appeared, pulled an all nighter and been farming for 20 hours now. NOTHING. I had hoped I will have more luck since it's my birthday today, but nope... Kind of disappointed. I'd love to have the little bear, it's so very cute, but I don't know how much longer I can keep up hoping. :( Akane Kiryu 01:38, 22 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Greatest thing of all is that I should be studying for my exams >.< Damn thi smini for its unbearable (pun intended) Awesomeness!

Wouldn't it be funny if, at the end of the event, A-net said that there was a coding bug that caused the bear to have 0% chance of dropping from the chest? xD -/Desi 17:05, 22 December 2008 (UTC)
 * No lol. Some people already got them yesterday, i saw a dedicated one go for 1650 ectos on guru. --King Of Kamelott [[Image:User_KingOfKamelott_sig.png|15px|Talk Page]] 17:13, 22 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah I've seen a few people selling them, but still out of all the people who are grinding these quests for hours on end theres not enough of them out there. As someone posted up previously these minis are only available at the moment to people who have bought ectos with real life money...not to the people who've actually put the time and effort into trying to get one. And fair enough they are "rare", but over 1000+ ecto is a bit much, they could have at least made it drop a bit more so they were 100k+XX that's rare.. but not OTT...but of course this is A-net we're talking about they seem to love people who buy ectos with real life money. I saw someone today who posted on guru that they had bought one and dedicated it, now they are looking to buy another, this person also has a mini panda, if thats not someone whos bought ectos with real money then I don't know what is.78.86.141.13 02:28, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, about 45 hours of farming so far, 6 or so stacks of cc shards from the quest alone, and still nothing. Anet, please give a break to people who're trying to get this adorable pet and farm their little hearts out for it with honest work. Minami Kaori    Akane Kiryu 02:52, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Don't waste your time, they don't care about what players have to say, and yes, 90% of people who get it only wants it to sell. ANet don't give a damn about who wants for X or Y, it's their game, they do whatever they want. The comment above where it says the chest has a chance of 0% drop, i believe, i've read somewhere here on wiki where a guy said that there was 4 drops in 2 days, or weeks, lol, uber awesome. -- Inflame 03:04, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * For people who love the bear and think it's soooo adorable, rejoice, you can get yourself a real (and actually useful) bear as a pet with ease. For everyone just farming it to sell for crazy amounts of ectos (and, I'd wager that's most of the people farming for this endlessly), stop hiding behind the facade of simply wanting a cute Wintersday gift. Skyy High 04:20, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, Skyy High, I do want the miniature bear for myself and I would not sell it for any price. I already captured the Jingle Bear in EotN (naturally), but have you thought about these points?: 1.) It's not a miniature, hence I cannot have him displayed and have him run after me in towns and outposts (and, as the name "miniature" implies for the polar bear, the Jingle Bear in EotN is NOT tiny). 2.) I never play as a ranger, never use ranger skills, and I do not use the ranger heroes. I have nothing against them, but I just simply don't use them. Anyways, I do wish Anet would think about us honest players, and realize that it's probably bots and people who have bought game money with real life money who has one of them cute miniature bears. Minami Kaori. Akane Kiryu 04:33, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * LOL Sky!! the problem is that none of my main chars (Ritualist and Assassin) will have a secondary ranger profession, simply because i need other professions that offer what can fix (or at least help)the "holes" of those professions. Besides this applies to most of people, if not the PvP RA/HA etc would be full of those bears xD. Also, i can't get those pets into towns <.< -- Inflame 04:37, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * One way or another, minis are for bragging rights, whether that you got it by farming for it for 2 weeks, or that you paid 1000+e for it. Those that get it are simply the lucky ones, has nothing to do with how dedicated you may be, but honestly, it would lose it's specialness if everyone who was currently farming them, or simply wanted one, got one. --[[Image:User Wynthyst sig icon.png | Wyn's Talk page]] Wyn 05:21, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah... U have to be VERY lucky if you play it honestly. If one ever gets a drop, it should also max out your Lucky Title. >_< Minami Kaori. Akane Kiryu 05:30, 23 December 2008 (UTC)

(RI) I have tried many times to get this and I have yet to get one. I was fortunate to even get an Everlasting Ooze tonic the previous month. But the drop-rate on this mini is just not right. At least with other minis say a mini Ghostly Hero, at least that is always available 24/7 365 days a year. This? This is a once-a-year opportunity and what do we get? An obscenely low percentage of actually getting it and the demand is beyond comprehension. Everyone wants one, be it for keeps or to make money with, the demand is there. If there is no other way to get it, why try for it with the rate this is going? Yet if we were to compare other event-based miniatures of its class (mini pig, celestial pig, and celestial rat) with this, they don't even match. This mini not only outclass them in terms of rarity but it's also in a different league. It pains me to think that this is one particular mini that I will never be able to acquire through effort and hours upon hours of repeated attempts to get one. There are no alternatives to getting this. And if at the end of this entire event that the population of this mini don't blow up to a level where even I could potentially afford it (the 100k mark), all I can say is that this mini is a complete failure. It's too bad this miniature is not likely to be inside one of these Wintersday Gift. At least that would have been so much more sensible than the thousands of people going through those quests in an attempt to get one. &mdash; Sixshot 06:50, 23 December 2008 (UTC)

(RI) This really sucks I've been trying for a while to get this now and its boring me alot I understand the excitement of having a pet this rare but still YAWN!!but to be honest im more annoyed at arenanet for doing Rare event Mini's that are only available in Asia ya know its really unfair that European players are left out of that we dont even get to see these mini's in our servers its not fair I've been playing for years now and noticed that europe is left out of a few compertations and event give aways so i really want to get this bear and I dont know if anyone in Europe has one but I've never seen this mini before and I play guildwars everyday nearly Teratus Vantian 11.56, 23 December 2008 (UTC)

(RI) Okay, 17 hours of farming today, still nothing. :(( Minami Kaori. Farming as Miyako Amakura. Akane Kiryu 15:29, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Do remember that Wintersday lasts for over 2 weeks. If you could reliably get one with a day or 2's worth of farming, everyone would have one, and people who decided to farm the whole time would have 8 to 16, and then we have a Miniature Pig situation. If they want the bear to continue to be special and valuable, the drop rate has to account for the people who are going to farm it as much as possible no matter what. I'm expecting to see the "FINALLY GOT ONE!!!" posts start trickling onto this page by the weekend or early next week. - Tanetris 15:42, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Well i have tried to get one did 220 runs got allot of other goodies, but if this is Anet way to say we protect the economy they are doing a very bad job if you want to protect why add stuff like this this only adds more greed and to get it by all means. Also when i see offers made on the MPB it's madness i know that when you work hard you will receive wealth but offers going in 2 a 3 digits in braces that just rings a bell of WTF. But none the less about the MPB the droprate should rise. don't know this is just the way i think about it.Cult Mephisto 15:44, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Keep the drop rate as-is and discourage multi-account farming, it seems against the spirit of the event. Rumor has it some people have already finished 400+ runs on this chest just by parking 2-3 accounts and hammering on it nonstop.  Something tells me thats not what anet had in mind when they added this.  98.219.48.111 16:18, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Why wouldn't people multi-account farm? The drop rate is so low that the price has skyrocketed.  If they were more common, they wouldn't be so expensive, and there wouldn't be so many people farming for it.  The instant people find out something is rare, they charge out the nose for it.  I've seen people charging 5k to get the Jingle Bear, a free reward to some pretty easy (IMO) quests that I used entirely Hero/Hench to beat first time each.  I've also seen others pay 10k for fake information on where more CC shards drop.  The bear is insanely rare for something posted on the actual Wintersday page, making it out of the price range for most that want it. --66.137.149.204 20:29, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Because to me it seems against the spirit of the event. It is your money, your power bill, and most importantly your time so use it how you see fit.  Just don't forget there is more going on than a 1:10,000(?) polar bear drop.  98.219.48.111 21:50, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, I only have one account and I do the farming myself. Adn yes, I sure hope I will write "I GOT ONE!!" very soon. :D Minami Kaori. 76.187.21.141 16:41, 23 December 2008 (UTC)

Here's something I can offer you thats better then some mini bear: A pat on the back. --King Of Kamelott  16:52, 23 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Doing some internal reflection and looking at my life in the future, I see myself in one year either starting or getting ready to start GW2 or maybe just stopping playing GW (not because of the mini polar bear). Coming to this realization, I dont want to look back at my 2008 Christmas wishing I had spent more time with my family and girlfriend and less time chugging away at my computer to either get or not get a few bits of computer data. Not getting the bear wont ruin my life, but not taking the time to celebrate the holidays with my family would make me feel like a total smuck. So if you want to spend every waking hour playing computer games to get something that, lets be honest, isnt going to make that much difference in real life, thats up to you. But me, I'll be spending time with my family and friends making holiday memories. That, I believe is what the holiday spirit is truely about. If you want, feel free to drop me a "Happy Holidays" ingame. Ill gladly return the favor. --Elros Gil Estel 8:23 24 December, 2008 (UTC)

One word "Impossible".

I love how some people spend hours upon hours just trying to get a virtual image of no value whatshowever, and then refer it as work. This is a game people.  SniperFox  11:53, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * although.... "guild wars was has no impact on real life"... yet people fail to realize that you CAN go against the EULA and make an insane amount of money in REAL LIFE off these so-called "worthless, fake virtual items". a bud of mine sold his miniature kanaxai (no i will NOT give his name out) for $8,000. care to tell HIM that guild wars is a waste of time? the fact is... these "worthless, fake virtual items" truely DO have a real-world value-- just take a look at all the gold selling companies. ;) --Uchiha Lena 13:13, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * With no value I mean legal value, since everything stored on Anet's servers is their property, as the EULA. While you could indeed say that you could break the EULA and still sell virtual property, it would mean commiting a fraud. Fraudulent activities is not what I would call work. Apart from this, I still don't get why people take such a simple thing as a virtual item so seriously, and that people are willing to sacrifice so many to get one such.  SniperFox [[Image:User_SniperFox_IconSmall.gif]] 15:43, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * You make a good point, Uchiha Lena. But my point is that the time I spend with friends and family during the holidays is more valuable to me than getting this mini. On a side note, if your "bud" can sell a miniature in real life for $8,000 then I guess that just goes to show you how much of a real life some people really have. Now I suppose you will respond to this with "My bud has a great car/great job/wife and kids/does all sorts of other things outside of GW/etc..." but I dont think anyone will believe that. And I never said this game was a waste of time (why else would I play it), just the mindless pursuit of a mini so that you can sell it for money. -Jvinniec 18:23 24 December, 2008 (UTC)

330 runs over the past few days and counting... 19 stacks of cc's so far but no bear =/ damn this is intense --Lord Protoss 11:24 24 December, 2008 (UTC)


 * Y'know, people. You don't have to farm for this mini if you don't want to. It's entirely optional. There are many other things you could do. Backsword 17:22, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * I've already done the other things. This is the only Wintersday item I don't have, and I will always protest against promoted items that don't seem to drop.--66.137.149.204 17:32, 24 December 2008 (UTC)

330 runs is nothing... I've been farming for this since the 19th, stopping only to sleep. Six days and no bear! Sure I have enough Wintersday garbage to last me a lifetime but, no bear. I stopped counting at 600 runs and that was days ago. 192.155.57.135 17:24, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Too bad that the Rift Warden wasn't in the game on the 19th...

66.190.15.232 17:34, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * lieeeeeeeeeee [[Image:Elementalist-tango-icon-200.png|20px]] Ocravia Deathblade  23:21, 24 December 2008 (UTC)

Mini polar = cake = lie.
 * Cake was not a lie, u just needed to no clip underground.
 * You can get this pet with ease! Just farm your ass off and you got enough wintersday junk to buy it... after 10 years - JoPe [[Image:User Jope12 sigicon.png]] Talk  00:18, 25 December 2008 (UTC)

914 runs...no bear...--TheSlimeBeast 00:53, 27 December 2008 (UTC)

I realize that the players build the economy in the game, but with that in mind, why did ANET set the gold amount limit that a single character could hold and trade at any one time to 100k if not to limit how expensive items are in the game? I only ask because how does one actually obtain 1500 or more armbraces without some kind of cheat or bot? Maybe it's just me, but it seems like ANET initially made the game to be fun, and to have items be reasonably affordable and obtainable to anyone that just put in a little 'effort', but now are making it more of a grind-fest, or bot-fest game. Is it possible to change the Rarity description on the mini polar bear page from being "Rare" to "Not in your lifetime Rare" or "Uber Rare"? LOL, ok I vented about a virtual item that I don't really need. Here's to hoping that no ANET employee who farmed the MPB received one. --209.194.208.116 18:07, 29 December 2008 (UTC)

This morning i read about the polar bear for the first and after only 5 runs i got a lot of luck and now i have a polar bear.

Droprate
...is confirmed to be affected by having more Lucky than Unlucky points. 145.94.74.23 13:29, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * ...Where? Erasculio 13:48, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * There's no way that could be proved, so few people have gotten these that it would be impossible to see any correlation between your lucky points and the chance of it dropping.(marsc 15:08, 24 December 2008 (UTC))
 * Yeah, he just made that up - JoPe [[Image:User Jope12 sigicon.png]] Talk  16:31, 24 December 2008 (UTC)
 * Maybe he did that hoping that Anet would tell players more about the droprate of the pet. In fact, I am pretty sure that was the reason. ;-) 92.108.32.28 09:49, 25 December 2008 (UTC)
 * It would take a christmas miracle if the new community manager would reply on anything other than her talkpage.  SniperFox [[Image:User_SniperFox_IconSmall.gif]] 11:34, 25 December 2008 (UTC)

That would be nice for a change. --King Of Kamelott  16:38, 25 December 2008 (UTC)

I would say it's just stupid whta ya say there.Anet will not encouraging thngs like born unlucky stay unlucky because of more unlucky points then lucky ponts by unluckiness:DxD
 * Thats kind of passive aggressive. --<font color="#FFC125">King Of Kamelott [[Image:User_KingOfKamelott_sig.png|15px|Talk Page]] 01:54, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

presents
Someone said they got a polar from a present. there is also a polar following the person. might be a hoax, but maybe its true.


 * Definitely a hoax. 10 ppl in kamadan. all selling presents each say they got one. anyone who sells presents will definitely say it drops from them. if it drops from them, why arent they opening presents? but then again.... maybe... lol

WEll I've been farming this thing since day one and its really starting to annoy the hell out of me I've never farmed anything like this in my life i am desperate to start farming Monster claws and fangs to buy the asure armour i've been after since i got eotn but this damn bear has so much pull just the thaught of actually owning it and bing able to brag is too much its so rare i simply must find one :( curse my desire for rare things I want one so much its frustrating its half 4 in the morning now and im not tired much can anyone tell me if they have stopped dropping because a few people are saying that now but i dont know what to belive because anet have not spoken a word on this Teratus Vantian


 * they are still dropping.

How long have you been trying to get him?
I am not grinding the run as much as others I am sure. I didn't count the first day how many runs I did, it didn't occur to me, but I tried for 24 hours straight. The next day I did the quest 26 times, and yesterday because I finally learned I could rezone and get the easy quest again I doubled that and managed to do the quest 68 times in about 17 hours. It on average takes me about 15 minutes to get the quest, run to the end, get the chest, pick up all the shards, get back, rezone, rinse and repeat. Over a week of Wintersday left! I will do this 1000x or pass out at the computer trying! (Ameythst Jasmine 16:53, 26 December 2008 (UTC))

Well I havent been counting Runs per say but I have managed to get stacks of Candy cane shards some i sold some i kept

before wintersday i had 70k I baught a mini Fungal wallow a Heket warrior a Roaring Ether and a Mandragor Imp I think maybe one or two more but im now on 22 mini's and i had less than 18 when i started wintersday my monny also dropped from 70k to 40k and now its upto over 120k

so thats enough to show i've put quite alot of work into this wintersday I also have alot of chrismas items left mostly Rainbow candy canes

I would really like to know if this bear has stopped dropping or what quests you can get it to drop from

I am repeating Strength of snow from the rift warden in Lions Arch but im starting to dobt it drops there Teratus Vantian

Teratus it has been verified (with screen shots) by several users that the Polar Bear does indeed drop from the Wintersday chest at the end of Strength of Snow. It can also drop from the Wintersday chest at the end of Straight to the heart. It is a very rare drop and so far I have only seen screen shots of about 5-6 people that actually got the bear. I have done the run about 130 times so far with no luck so far. I have done it with the same Character over and over and I am starting to wonder if I should switch characters and try for it on a different Character since all of my Characters have beaten all the campaigns. (Ameythst Jasmine 19:48, 26 December 2008 (UTC))


 * Im farming for a week now did 30-40 runs a day and still no bear. but i got one more week to go. Koiboysg1 20:15, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

Done Strength of Snow approximately 80 times per day for the past 4 days. That would be about 320 runs, give or take. Amassed over 400k in gold, but no polar bear drop yet. I'm beginning to wonder if the randomizer is seeded by something we're not aware of, like perhaps killing a certain Grentch, not killing a certain Grentch, etc. If it isn't, the drop rate on this is utterly insane.

The Polar bear excist
Finnaly, after only 40 runs ( yes people only 40 runs ) I got the Miniature polar bear of the wintersday chest


 * luckye! I have 166  wintergreen candy canes, 47  peppermint candy canes, 44 rainbow candy canes, and yet I dont' get that polar bear. (that's count more than 40 runs)--208.104.132.121 19:41, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

Btw, one just got sold for 1500 ambraces of truth on guru


 * You have to be kidding me who even has 1500 armbraces of truth?? (Ameythst Jasmine 19:49, 26 December 2008 (UTC))
 * Dupers or people who got really rich from reselling back when GW was pretty new. Also, isn't this a fairly pointless section? Of course mini Polar Bears exist; there's this Wiki page for them and you can usually see multiple of them in Kamadan AD1 during Wintersday... Datrulegend 19:54, 26 December 2008 (UTC)

just for people who believe it isn't there

I thought they took all those duped armbraces out of the game back when they first caught wind of that? As for this section being pointless I think it was more "I got one, so hey keep trying." than "Yeah it really does exist its not a hoax." (Ameythst Jasmine 19:56, 26 December 2008 (UTC))

Thanks Ameythst I was not really wondering on its exsistance but more on wheather or not it was actually dropped by wintersday chests in the Quests the Rift warden gives you

But if theres Screen shots to prove it then im all for beliving that thanks

Oh yeah I saw one about half a hour ago in Lion arch so im more keen to find one Teratus Vantian


 * Yeah there is a post on the Guild Wars Guru forum called "Confirmed Mini Polar Bears" with 5-6 people that have taken screen shots in the dungeon with the bear in the inventory showing the "You picked up Miniature Polar Bear" on their screen, so totally legit. There is also a guy that claims him and his cousins used 5 accounts and did 7000+ runs and that he has 14 MPBs -- however that one I am not buying! I'd love to see a screen shot of 14 MPBs in his inventory! ((Ameythst Jasmine 21:30, 26 December 2008 (UTC))
 * If by cousins do you mean cousin bot #1, #2, #3, and #4? --24.92.116.83 03:57, 27 December 2008 (UTC)
 * AHahha I don't disagree with that conclusion at all! * Ameythst Jasmine [[Image:User Amethyst Jasmine sig.png‎]]  ( Talk )  01:54, 26 December 2008 (UTC) 04:12, 27 December 2008 (UTC)

its technically possible to run 5 accounts and succeed. it just gets a bit more difficult at 3 and higher.

How is that possible? arrg Im never gonna get this bear lol its really annoying Its a pain now exspecially when Aol keeps Dissconecting me every 5 mins for no reason its taking me nearly 30 mins a run now because of that Terrible Netservice does anyone have any advice on the best internet service for GW to run on cause i've had enough of aol and I really want to get this bear and my chances are becoming very low with this dissconnection rate Teratus Vantian

Percentage
Assuming the 7000 run thing is correct, the drop rate is 1/500
 * That guy was spouting bs. Plain and simple.  --66.190.15.232 23:00, 27 December 2008 (UTC)

Agreed that is a load of crap why cant people just be honest here isnt that the whole point of this page?Teratus

Just a Thought
Just had an idea about the final on the 1st. I was thinking about the mini pig and how it was only available from Lunar fortunes at first then at the final everyone got one. What if the same happened for the polar bear at the final. It is just an idea but we can hope can't we lol. --60.231.26.47 10:54, 28 December 2008 (UTC)
 * HAHAHA that's what I call wishful thinking... I don't think it's gonna happen though :P --[[Image:User Wynthyst sig icon.png | Wyn's Talk page]] Wyn 12:12, 28 December 2008 (UTC)

Yea u can wish but it didn't happen last year and the mini polar bear was around last year too... ~The One To Fear

Quests
Does it matter which quest we take? And do we have to kill everything or can we skip few Grentches? Thanks –  <font face="Papyrus"> Barinthus  19:26, 28 December 2008 (UTC)
 * No and No --[[Image:User_Karasu_sig.png|19px]] <font color="Black">Karasu (talk) 19:49, 28 December 2008 (UTC)

The ".1% is the drop rate" rumor
I've been thinking... The rumor that the drop rate for the MPB is .1% doesn't seem correct. Back when we were opening Lunar Fortunes like made, the possibility of getting a Miniature Celestial Rat was (supposedly) .4%. By the end of the event, there were well over 5,000 of these minis in the economy. The rumor that the MPB drops at a rate of .1% has to be false, or there would ~500 of these things roaming around. Pas2010
 * Oh, hey, you can do math. Good job. KStarfire 06:11, 30 December 2008 (UTC)
 * How do you know there aren't ~500 out there somewhere? Vili [[Image:User Vili sig.jpg|User talk:Vili]] 07:15, 30 December 2008 (UTC)
 * And getting and using Lunar Fortunes is much faster than farming The Strength of Snow or Straight to the Heart. You can open over 200 fortunes is 5 minutes or less, but you can't farm the quests 200 times or more in that time. - <font color="Black">JoPe [[Image:User Jope12 sigicon.png]] <font color="Black">Talk  07:36, 30 December 2008 (UTC)
 * According to the current data on this wiki, the drop rate is less than 0.06%. This number could of course be off, but the likelihood of it being as high as 0.1% is ridiculously low. Blood Red Giant 08:14, 30 December 2008 (UTC)
 * I have been counting with snowman summoners, which I'll burn at the finale - over 300 runs now and 0 mini polar bears. I also got 0 in 150 or so runs last year - the drop rate for this is incredibly low. --Falseprophet 17:44, 31 December 2008 (UTC)
 * You can't say anything about the drop rate with this research so far - it could be even 5% just that we all are totally unlucky.. poke | talk 17:49, 31 December 2008 (UTC)
 * That's true. But highly unlikely. We're talking in percentages, which are out of 100, and there's now around 2000 chests in the data: that's 20 sets of 100, easily enough to determine with a fair degree of certainty whether the drop rate is below 1% or not. --<font color="#001100">Mme. [[Image:User Mme. Donelle sig.jpg]]<font color="#001100">Donelle  00:11, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Well, the drop rate seems to be way below 1% judging from the data gathered. It should of course be below 1% because otherwise Anet could just have handed out the bear as a Wintersday present to everyone. However, the drop rate seems to be insanely low. As a 'normal' player (i.e. somebody without 10 'cousins' with 15 accounts each botting their life away) it seems to be almost impossible to even actually see a 'live' MPB. I've been at like 5 or 6 finales (happily changing between LA and Kamadan) without sighting even one of those rarities (and since it is the festival item you'd expect people to show it at the finale just like the celestial rat). Why create an item so rare that it will remain not only unowned but also unseen to like 99% of the players? And most of those who actually own one will most likely have their accounts banned sooner or later (for botting, buying GW accounts with in-game gold, buying gold, trading insane amounts of gold that would seem near impossible to gather by 'legal' means...) I am not saying that this applies to all MPB owners - some were probably just lucky, may they treat the little one well... --Iant 18:15, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Stop wasting your time speculating girl and get out there and farm the little bugger, we still need 2 more of them for the party!!!! Manassas 10:44, 2 January 2009 (UTC)
 * I read about people getting the miniature after less than 10 runs. And I also have seen a lot of those miniatures already (even last Wintersday). The reason that you don't see the miniatures during the finales is because of those idling people that have their miniature activated that makes it impossible to get out any other miniature.. poke | talk 18:22, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * I just saw a mini polar bear roaming around in Kamadan - International District 6. I asked the owner how many runs it took them, they said 800 or so. *yikes* Pas2010
 * yeah, at last... I saw the bear :P Took me long enough to get into Am 1. Now I can rest in peace...--Iant 19:59, 2 January 2009 (UTC)

Just wondering if drop rate is affected my multiple logins from 1 ip adress, since there are 3 players in this household farming and no miniature polar bear for any of us. (we are way over 1000 runs together) 82.168.177.79 10:02, 5 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Absolutely no one can tell you what affects the drop rate one way or the other since no one really knows what the drop rate is other than ArenaNet, and they aren't talking. --[[Image:User Wynthyst sig icon.png | Wyn's Talk page]] Wyn/talk 10:31, 5 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Ya, the drop rate is more like 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% 69.131.130.201 17:44, 9 February 2009 (UTC)

A Fun Fact
We have more chances of being struck by lightning (1 in 576000) than to have this drop. Remarkable! --<font color="#FFC125">King Of Kamelott  07:08, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Now it seems even more impossible to get. Try to get struck by lightning and try again. You might have some better chances after that... - <font color="Black">J.P. [[Image:User Jope12 sigicon.png]] <font color="Black">Talk  09:11, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Current data suggests the drop rate is at or less than 1 in 1667. So at least when I get struck by lightning, I'll have a good armful of cuddly little bears to absorb the shock for me. :p --<font color="#001100">Mme. [[Image:User Mme. Donelle sig.jpg]]<font color="#001100">Donelle  11:20, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * That's what I said at the beginning. You're just in the denial stage of grief.  As for myself, I'm currently in the bargaining stage but will soon move on to depression and then finally acceptance for not getting a mini polar bear drop.  :P
 * I am still in the hopeful stage, because I am again farming it for my guildleader (who got sick again this year, what are the odds of that?). And no, she's not faking an illness, because she's my wife so I know her pretty well irl. ^^ 145.94.74.23 17:26, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * You, my friend, are a brave soul for joining your wife's guild... Dean Harper 20:40, 1 January 2009 (UTC)
 * sounds like QQ imo --Uchiha Lena 09:00, 3 January 2009 (UTC)
 * i dont like the way this drops so randomly because my friends friends has done something like 40 runs and has had 4 bears ive done like 70 and havnt had 1 its a tad anoying --Nick123 20:02, 3 January 2009 (UTC)
 * 4 bears in 40 runs? Either you're exaggerating, or your friend's lying. Many people have done well over 500 runs and have seen no bear. You're right, it's annoying, but this mini was clearly designed to be a rare treat, and not something most people can expect to get. --79.171.74.8 20:08, 3 January 2009 (UTC)
 * It's really hard to believe to get 4 after 40 runs, but in theory you can get 1 after each run. But i don't kinda believe this 4 minis after 40 runs either. But it can be true, who knows? - <font color="Black">J.P. [[Image:User Jope12 sigicon.png]] <font color="Black">Talk  10:20, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * I've been doing this almost non-stop since the event started and I still have not gotten a bear. My friend got one on his 20th run. Trying to get one is now getting really frustrating, and worser still is that there's only 2 days left so if I dont get it (which i probably wont!), I'll have to wait another year! :(--Alexander Elaeus 21:42, 3 January 2009 (UTC)

I agree Alexander, I am getting a bit anoyed as well, I really wanted one to put in my Hall of Monuments and to keep. But In 2 days might be lucky, but I doubt it. Anyway to those that are still farming them till event ends I wish you all luck :)--124.179.148.228 07:22, 4 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Alas, no polar bear, as i was expecting /sigh. Now i'll have to wait another yeat for this. Did anyone else here who was farming mangage to get one?--Alexander Elaeus 22:55, 6 January 2009 (UTC)
 * No mini for me either. 3 persons farming for me, but too bad. Maybe next year :p Mistress of Trade 21:48, 7 January 2009 (UTC)
 * I ended up doing well over 1000 runs, no mini bear for me. Maybe next year. I did shed a little tear at the end of Winterday but by that point I just could not do that run one more time without wanting to pull my hair out so I'm glad it was finally over. ( Ameythst Jasmine [[Image:User Amethyst Jasmine sig.png‎]]  ( Talk )  01:54, 26 December 2008 (UTC) 04:45, 11 January 2009 (UTC))
 * One mini for me ^^ found in first run of the new year (after about 30-40 runs, maybe some more) Nikademo 16:09, 12 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Its amazing to me how many people report this drop in such a low run count...too amazing actually. 98.219.48.111 17:02, 12 January 2009 (UTC)
 * Near 3500 chests were opened. That's more then enough to get a certainty of 97% percent for the values.. Too lazy to calculate how far we're from the right amount exactly atm.. --[[Image:User_Karasu_sig.png|19px]] <font color="Black">Karasu (talk) 17:14, 12 January 2009 (UTC)
 * here's the screen polar bear ;-) Nikademo 18:16, 12 January 2009 (UTC)


 * I did the math from the chance given from the page, I got it to 1 out of 2874 C4K3 [[Image:User_C4K3_Signature.jpg]] Talk 19:47, 29 September 2009 (UTC)


 * 1 in 576000? Have you factored in the chance of your average guildwars player actually going outside? :P --BlueNovember 16:19, 22 December 2009 (UTC)

Possible Explanation for Erratic Droprates
Please refer to this article on GWGuru a while back going into detail about how drops are determined the moment you enter a zone: http://www.guildwarsguru.com/forum/showthread.php?t=10225077

After considering this, it got me thinking about how this Polar Bear business is really going down. Suppose this:

- Let's say that this means there are "drop time slots", in which anyone who enters a certain zone within that time slot gets the same loot table. I don't know how long each time slot is, but let's assume it's about 1 second, or maybe less.

- Let's suppose the Polar Bear is programmed to drop at only ONE drop timeslot per day (24 hour period), for every day throughout Wintersday.

- During that ONE drop timeslot, anyone who enters the zone will get one.

- Entering at any other time slot during the day will result in no polar bear.

This would explain why some people tended to get it very quickly, while others spent a lot of time getting nothing. It's because you basically had a 0% chance of getting it if you hadn't been trying to farm it during whenever the winning timeslot was for each day. Now the time slot could have certainly moved each day (and it probably did). But this still means that you actually had a 0% of getting it some days, depending on when you happened to play.

Add this in along with the very slim chance you have of successfully hitting that winning timeslot even if you were farming it during the time it was active, due to the run taking at least 10 minutes usually. This means that not only did you have to be farming it during the winning time slot's time, but also had to then be lucky enough to just happen to enter the run at that exact second or so on top of that.

It would make it extremely rare overall, but also explain how some people got it relatively easily, because they just happened to play during the time of day that the winning timeslot occurred, while others didn't. Consider this:

- Suppose I play one hour a day, but for some reason just happened to be doing it during the winning time slot. This gives me a slim but possible chance that I win and get a polar bear.

- Suppose my friend plays it 23 hours that day, but didn't play it at all during that same hour that I did. They have a flat 0% of getting it; they're already pre-determined to lose.

Even if my example of having one timeslot per day (which could easily be disproven if two people get it at different times on the same day), it still may generally explain why there have been such erratic Polar Bear droprates reported. It's because it's not how MUCH you play, but WHEN you play that matters.

134.24.148.64 20:45, 1 April 2009 (UTC)


 * If your assumptions are correct, you'd still have a 1 in 86400 chance to be in the right time slot, so it's all still chance. They might also have just coded the chance to be very slim. It wouldn't make any difference. &mdash; Why [[Image:User Why s.png|User talk:Why Are We Fighting]] 21:09, 1 April 2009 (UTC)


 * When I read that article on Guru about drops in an area being determined by "time slots", I decided to test that myself. I have two computers on my desk besides eachother, on which I set up two identical solo farming chars and entered the area at excact the same time. I then killed stuff in the exact same order simultaneously on both account. I did the whole setup about 10 times. And what did I find? - I found that there was no similarity whatsoever between the drops on the two accounts. Based on those findings, I firmly believe the Guru article is a hoax. <span style=”font-family:Verdana;color:#3FF">Manassas  [[Image: Ritualist-tango-icon-20.png]] 10:16, 20 December 2009 (UTC)


 * If this article is correct it would still be very hard to reproduce results by simply doing what you did. GW servers can be unpredictable, and therefore your two computers may not be connecting to the explorable area at the same time, although it may seem like it. Though in the article he does state there are minor differences in their drops which could be attributed to entering the instance within milliseconds of difference, it might be possible that even small differences on entering the area may contribute to drops being completely different from each other. Because of this unreliability it should be very hard to either prove or disprove this theory. FC 18:24, 20 December 2009 (UTC)


 * Imagine the complexity and need for processing power of recalculating full droptables for each and every foe in the game each fraction of a second (I did, without any doubt, enter the instance withing the same second every time) - In stead of just assigning a fixed random value to each foe. It doesn't make much sense to me and I stand by my belief that the article is a hoax. <span style=”font-family:Verdana;color:#3FF">Manassas  [[Image: Ritualist-tango-icon-20.png]] 06:40, 21 December 2009 (UTC)


 * The article's authors stated that they were able to produce the same results in three separate instances, but their data has not been replicated - by you, or by other posters in the Guru thread (1)(2). At least one person, however, succeeded (1). Given your recent failed attempt to replicate their data, and the similar difficulties others have had, it would seem that either the drop code has changed since the author posted and the Guru article is no longer relevant, that the original post was a hoax, or that failed experiments have been somehow flawed, probably due to a tight sync window. When you continue to read the thread, you realize that the mechanism of determining drops is likely much more complicated (1). Also, we are assuming that the drop determining mechanism for chests is the same as it is for monsters (which the thread author claimed (1). Bearing all this in mind, and considering the low observed drop rate on the wiki, your best strategy for getting a bear is to farm as much and as often as you can - which is the strategy you'd use whether the authors were right or not. -- Threid User Threid sigicon.png 00:17, 23 December 2009 (UTC)

Possible explanation for erratic droprates is that Law of large numbers doesn't apply for small samples... Elephant 20:00, 20 December 2009 (UTC)
 * what Elephant said. on a side note, anyone who plays poker a lot, know that though the odds might be 1% or w/e doesn't mean that if 1000 people do the same thing it becomes 100% chance. luck is a definite factor. I would laugh my buttocks off if there was 30% chance of said mini dropping, and we are just all unfortunate... likely? no. possible? yes. Roflmaomgz 19:35, 26 December 2009 (UTC)


 * Remember, there is no magical moment at which point the Polar Bear will drop for you at a certain second in a "timeslot". If anyone has any coding experience, they would know that each time someone enters this mission, the drops in the chest are already there (its either that or they are created the moment the chest is opened), and they would also know that you are put up against a weighted random number generator EACH time you come into the instance or open the chest (depending on which one is right). There are 4 set items (Spiked Eggnog, Snowman Summoner, Fruitcake, Wintergreen Candy Cane) which have 100% fixed drop rate. There are 8 other items which are not fixed at 100%, including the Polar Bear (5 total drops). When that last item needs to be created, your number is drawn from the random number generator (1-8) using the weighed percentages fixed to each number. Lets say the bear is #8. That number is going to have the approximate percentage (.1%-.2%) affixed to it, so that eight in the random number generator will appear a lot less than the rest. This also shows that there is no global percentage or count of the polar bear drops, there is no wrinkle in time where it will be available, it is all random weighted percentage numbers. Super J [[Image:User_SuperJ_SuperJSignaturePic.jpg|link=Special:Contributions/SuperJ]] 17:10, 19 December 2010 (UTC)
 * silly comment at the top, shows that you know nothing about probability. the reason some get it after 10 runs and some have done 1000 and not got it is nothing to do with the time you entered the map. its just how probability works. if enough people do it, and submit their data, you would see a normal distribution curve, with the highest number of people at a few thousand runs, if the 0.02 % thing is right. of course, that number is probably inaccurate anyway, but thats besides the point. 89.243.241.53 10:38, 20 December 2010 (UTC)

Recent edit: drops ONLY in 2007
http://wiki.guildwars.com/index.php?title=Miniature_Polar_Bear&diff=1794918

Can anyone support this claim? Did really nobody find a mini polar bear last year?
 * The sentence says "introduced during 2007", not "only drops during 2007". – Emmett  16:21, 22 November 2009 (UTC)
 * For what it's worth, I met someone who found a mini polar bear in 2008. She got it on her 16th run, lucky sod! --Mme. Donelle 08:53, 1 January 2010 (UTC)

Another fun fact... XD
if we assume that the 0,035 percent drop rate is right, then you have only 2,333137409(highest chance,no matter how much runs you do) percent chance of getting him in a witersday period (if you do at least 315 runs in the period of wintersday). Interesting isn't it. XD XD XD

Im pretty sure that in the English language we use periods instead of commas for decimals. lol who cares.
 * Another fun fact: you can sign your comments, just do it. -- Cyan [[Image:User Cyan Light sig.jpg|19px]] 16:36, 28 December 2009 (UTC)
 * Fact: the 0.035% is based on zero bears having dropped.  The real percent could be several decimal places off.  24.197.253.243 09:05, 1 January 2010 (UTC)
 * Im going to go with, There is no spoon... T1Cybernetic [[File:User T1Cybernetic Glob of Ectoplasm.png]] 13:06, 1 January 2010 (UTC)
 * realy makes u hate thouse peeps tht get one on the 1st run ~Nelson (n122333) [[Image:User N122333 sig image.jpg|19px]]
 * If you assume a single run takes ~20 minutes. If you did nothing but farm this (24 hours a day) for a single week, you would only have a 5.7% chance of it dropping 83.90.164.217 14:57, 4 February 2010 (UTC)
 * Unless you have gwX2. --Musha [[Image:User_Musha_Sigc.png|19px]] 00:30, 18 December 2010 (UTC)

So I was told from random...
IF you refreshly install GW, load up the game and do a sample run of the Strength of the Snow Quest. Assuming you didn't get the mini polar bear and you dont encounter someone with mini polar bear at town. You can actually SEE if the mini polar bear will be in the chest through the loading screen if it downloads a file thats couple of megabytes big. hoax? I wish it was true thou QQ (Still farming). 110.175.41.212 04:18, 4 January 2010 (UTC)
 * Probably a hoax. I didn't notice any extra file being loaded (and don't believe i've seen a mini polar bear in town ever before) few days ago when I got mine... Шзвч [TALK] @ 14:04, 5 January 2010 (UTC)
 * Your getting warmer ;) but no, new items that drop from a chest or a monster are not significant enough to cause any form of notification for a packet download, well not any type of notification you would always indefinitely see, by this I mean it could simply stall at 0% then jump to 100% and you wouldn't know whether it was a small spike in your connection or if the the mini had just loaded into your data bin (I'm assuming you have crazy fast internet like me tho). But, me and my guildies had finessed a method close to this (28 out of 73 people got a mini-bear this year in my guild). Here's a hint your going to need a 3rd party program that can monitor avg size variables within a program. (WHY? Because a mobile Mini-Pet that has an audio clip attached to it's actions is going to take up more space then anything else you will find in that chest!!) Maybe remember for next year. ^_^
 * So...What is this program you speak of? 19:02, 18 December 2010 (UTC)

Great, the only hint we get towards an easier farm and it's ambiguous. :( --Ben
 * Ya know, following tips that involve 3rd party programs probably aren't the kind of tips you should be following. Unless you like temping Dhumm, that is.  --Valshia 21:37, 28 December 2010 (UTC)

The program that person is talking about doesn't interact with the client, but rather 'monitors' an element of it. Knowing average sized downloads and making assertions from such knowledge can hardly be considered any more unfair than using the cartographer overlays available. --Ben
 * I wish these so called 28 out of 73 guildies would post their drops in the research table so we would actually see evidence of more than one drop (not to mention get a better idea of the actual drop rate). I personally find it questionable that 28 people in a single guild got a drop that is only evidenced to have dropped a handful of times in 3 years. -- Wyn [[Image:User Wynthyst sig icon2.png|19px ]] talk  07:59, 29 December 2010 (UTC)

Getting this drop should instantly max your lucky title
Seriously. 75.73.123.166 16:36, 18 December 2010 (UTC)

Drop Rate Research
Is there any research going on somewhere? --Musha 18:41, 18 December 2010 (UTC)


 * Yes, see the answer to your question on the Wintersday Chest talk page. There are over 3000 chests opened, which provides an upper limit on the likely drop rate (roughly 0.2%). (See the bottom of the page.) — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 20:45, 18 December 2010 (UTC)
 * In an MMO, if you take a sample of 3,000 and an item's drop rate says 0%, one of two things has happened: 1) there's a bug, 2) the designers are idiots. I'm not saying that to be mean, mind you. But, uh, how does someone think "hey, let's expend resources to make an item that less than .01% of the population will be able to enjoy!" and then have that idea approved by the rest of the design team? I'm going to bug Joe about this; I have a hunch it could well be the former... –Jette 01:33, 19 December 2010 (UTC)


 * The drop rate for minis from Gifts of the Traveler is also less than 1%. Also: Dhuum and Mallyx minis aren't exactly available to the average player, who probably hasn't ever been to UW, never mind completed it. And, honestly, Jette, I will probably never have this mini...and I'm enjoying it just fine because it is so hard to get. There's not that much point to prestige items if anyone can grind for it.


 * BTW: the drop rate is probably not 0.01%; it's probably around 0.1-0.2% &mdash; still not a lot, but a big difference assuming that at least a hundred thousand people open a Wintersday Chest this year. Also, it's possible that those receiving the mini just aren't reporting it here. Plenty of people don't want to post on the wiki.


 * That said, I think it's a good idea to bring it to Joe's attention. At the very least, he can end the rumors and speculation about whether this was nerfed for 2009 (or 2010). Also, it wouldn't surprise me at all if you are right and the developers meant for it to drop more often originally. — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 01:52, 19 December 2010 (UTC)


 * If the drop rate is, say, .01%, then after 3,000 drops, there's a good chance it should have dropped once. Not definite, but about 33%. Mallyx and Dhuum are rare, but they are much more common despite being much harder to get. Making a mini that has a .01% or less drop rate that appears only for 3 weeks once a year is just... kind of weird. If the drop rate were low but it's always available I'd be less suspicious. –Jette 02:14, 19 December 2010 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I've always been perplexed by the rarity of this item as well. The reported droprate of .02% means 1 out of every 5000 chests which is just insanely low, .01% would be 1 out of 10,000, which is so much worse, of course. How can this be the case? The droprate should be AT LEAST .1% (1/1000) which I still think is too low. Somewhere between .15% and .2% would be a good rarity value and would still be less rare than mini Mallyx and mini Dhuum. --Musha [[Image:User_Musha_Sigc.png|19px]] 06:47, 19 December 2010 (UTC)

what does it look like when dropped from the chest?
Does it come out as a mini, or a birthday present, or what?
 * I image it comes out as a mini, just like when opening lunar fortunes for mini celestial pets. --Musha [[Image:User_Musha_Sigc.png|19px]] 06:48, 19 December 2010 (UTC)
 * It appears like any other a drop, a plain item that can be picked up. It uses the "generic item bag" appearance when it's on the ground. –Jette 07:08, 19 December 2010 (UTC)
 * Thanks. So, here's hoping for a mere generic item bag!