Talk:Nicholas Sandford/Research

Calendar Format
I have added a calendar format table for discussion purposes. In its present form, the individual entries are probably too complex for normal use, however a template can be constructed to make the actual data entry easier. Please limit discussion to how easy it is to understand the new table at the moment. Once a conclusion is reached about how useful the table is, I will put the template together. mtew 00:24, 24 April 2009 (UTC)
 * Given that this is a "research" page, I don't really see a benefit from a calendar view; but if you like you can of course create some calendar template... The current usage is just too complicated and not really needed.. poke | talk 17:27, 24 April 2009 (UTC)
 * Noted – I've pulled the calendar form. I've restructured the page to construct the additional tables automatically from the basic data. --mtew 11:54, 27 April 2009 (UTC)
 * I propose we use the calender style, it would take up less space and be easier to read than just a list scrolling down. After a couple months this will become ridiculous. [Edit, I forgot to sign.] Moo 19:16, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

some sorting
I added   to 2 of the tables. If it's too annoying, its easy to get rid of. 76.30.79.54 07:20, 25 April 2009 (UTC)

Complete list?
Are we sure that the list of items is complete? I noticed he hasn't collected worn belts at all. Daoshi 02:17, 26 April 2009 (UTC)
 * I don't think the list is complete, but i do think the item is as completely random as possible so the items he hasn't asked for yet will probably be added soon. Since in theory the longer an item doesn't appear the higher the chance it appears next time. There is also a chance it wont appear for another month that's highly unlikely though. [[Image:User Tenri My image.jpg]] Tenri 04:02, 26 April 2009 (UTC)
 * All items he has collected since his first appearance are included on the list. The rotation is unlikely to be completely random; however, it will take a couple of months for a clear pattern to emerge (given that he has already asked for 13 distinct items). Tennessee Ernie Ford 10:19, 26 April 2009 (UTC)
 * True everything he has collected is in the list but what I think a complete list is all the items he can collect not already has although we may have all the the items on it now since the only pre stackable drops left are spider webs and charr hides. You may be right for the order of the items being a very elongated pattern simulating randomness for that we will have to wait and see. [[Image:User Tenri My image.jpg]] Tenri 17:06, 26 April 2009 (UTC)

Wierd charcters in Chrome...
The &amp;zwnj; characters at the beginning of the update lines is causing wierd characters to appear in Chrome according to Jon.

This could mean Chrome is broken and a bug report to its developers is in order. &amp;zwnj; is part of standard HTTP. It is also possible that the WIKI is translating the &amp;zwnj; to its UTF-8 form and Chrome is not set to accept UTF-8. However that still leaves the viewer with a mess until they fix it. (As with any bug, it may be fixed in hours or it may never be fixed.)

Suggestion: Make sure that Chrome is set for UTF-8.

Alternative: It might be possible to use another character in place of &amp;zwnj;. Any such character must have very little visual impact (preferably no visual impact). It must sort above all normal capital letters.

--mtew 17:46, 2 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I changed them to no-width-spaces instead of no-width-no-joins. --JonTheMon 17:49, 2 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Good. Thank you. --mtew 17:56, 2 May 2009 (UTC)

Salvage Items?
Do you suppose he'll be wanting some items that are marked as salvage items? Spider webs, for example. Because almost everything he collects is salvageable but not specifically marked as a salvage item.--Thrashed 17:35, 4 May 2009 (UTC)


 * One of the reasons the updates are included in the previous occurrence list is to answer this kind of question. There are 13 different items on the list at present and the last to appear was worn belts after 17 days. The delay from the initial creation of Nicholas stands at 25 days, which makes the chance that there are items on the list that we have not seen quite low. So, while it is vaguely possible that salvage items could appear, there is very little real chance that they will appear unless ArenaNet does something special. --mtew 22:28, 4 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Very few collectors ask for those 'salvageable items' like Charr pelts, or Spider webs, but they do exist. I'm saving them for a month or so. Mith[[Image:User MithranArkanere Star.png]]Talk 00:39, 5 May 2009 (UTC)
 * It's worth sawing them regardless of nicholas, since both can be easily converted to rare mats. Zweistein 06:09, 7 May 2009 (UTC)
 * But rmember this is pre-Searing. You can get silk from webs and fur from hides, but they are useless in pre, and it is better to save the Charr kits to get runes. Mith[[Image:User MithranArkanere Star.png]]Talk 13:00, 7 May 2009 (UTC)
 * I save the more valuable things (like Dust) and send them to post with my next mule transport (you need a trustworthy friend or a second account to do that). CC 08:05, 8 May 2009 (UTC)
 * Yep, stack of webs gets stransported to post, where it is actually useful and cheap to salvage. Zweistein 07:38, 13 May 2009 (UTC)

Update in table
What does it do? Like, I think the "updates" need to be better described. --JonTheMon 02:38, 8 May 2009 (UTC)


 * They simply provide a marker for the points where items could be added to or removed from the list of possible items Nicholas might request. Except for the 'Introduction' they should be deleted after about 4 or 5 weeks. Anything that has not shown up in that length of time is almost certainly not on his list. There is a note at the end of the table that indicates what they are for. If you think more is needed, have at it. --mtew 02:58, 8 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I still don't get what it's for. Like, give an example? --JonTheMon 04:18, 8 May 2009 (UTC)


 * They provides information on the absence of additional items. They show that, baring changes by ArenaNet, all the items Nicholas wants are very likely to have been seen already.


 * There is also the esthetic component – when sorted by 'last occurrence', they provide markers that flow slowly to the top of the list and, over time, makes the tumbling of items to the end of the list a little easier to see.


 * I suspect that you are not seeing them in their dynamic context. In the raw they don't look very interesting. They become much more interesting when the sorting is changed. --mtew 05:35, 8 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I've done that, but i still don't see how based on where the data points fall between the updates, how that's relevant. So, before the first "update" only dull carapace hasn't been repeated. And between the first and second "update" Grawl Necklaces and Worn Belts haven't been since repeated. And when do you decide there's an update? --JonTheMon 13:33, 8 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Personally, I find it distracting to track Updates with the current distribution. I am not sure we have the ability to discern if ANet makes small tweaks to the distribution during monthly updates. With 13 items on the known list, I would want to see at least 50-60 data points before arguing in favor of a particular pattern. In fact, if Nick removes an item from his preferred list (which would not be a minor change), it could take at least 4 weeks of evidence before we might notice.


 * However, if a new item shows up, we could restore the recent game changes to the tracking system. Tennessee Ernie Ford 14:18, 8 May 2009 (UTC)


 * So those lines simply show that there was a game update? You know that ArenaNet uses a streaming technology that allows them to do updates without the user having to restart/update explicitely? And I think the information is quite redundant, as there are only a fixed number of possible items in pre-searing and not really an update required.. poke | talk 14:37, 8 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I have to disagree with that, while they do use streaming technology, they do also have actual "update" parts where they may add something large to the game. If you look on the wiki main page there are certain random updates in which they have to tweak something large, and to be able to take advantage of this you need to restart Guild Wars. This is simply to show that there has been an update in case of something having been added to his cycle since then. After a few months of nothing having been added it will become clear that having those markers is useless and they will probably be removed. Moo 19:14, 13 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I have already removed one update marker, the one for April 23rd. Until the recent re-occurrence of 'dull carapace', it looked like they might have been dropped. The markers showed that something strange was going on, but that it was too soon to reach a conclusion. That is the markers do provide a kind of indirect information and that it would be harder to understand what is happening without the markers. (Jon: Updates are announced in the upper left of the main page of the WIKI.) --mtew 20:01, 13 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I know about general game updates, i thought those "updates" were updates relevant to Nick, not just any ol' update. --JonTheMon 20:07, 13 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Yep, just 'any ol update' since a change in the request list might or might not get included in the update's description... --mtew 20:12, 13 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Of course there are normal updates, Moo, I know that. But what I said was that they are not limited to that; just having a lot "bigger" updates still doesn't mean that they wouldn't be able to change something on the mechanism of Nicholas using their streaming technology. And mtew, it's the upper right of the main page ;) poke | talk 20:17, 13 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Hey Poke – quit making fun of my handicap. I've admitted that I have dyslexia. No need to rub it in! :&THORN; --mtew 20:30, 13 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Today I tried to copypasta skale fins into the table, but I screwed up... Pino 07:07, 23 May 2009 (UTC)
 * No, you [ did fine] :) poke | talk 11:00, 23 May 2009 (UTC)

Charr Carvings vs Unnatural Seeds - 16 May 2009
Today, he seems to want one of the two, depending on which account I use. A bug? Please, share your experience. Foo 07:33, 16 May 2009 (UTC)
 * That's interesting. I looked on here yesterday morning and saw Charr Carvings, gritted my teeth and went and farmed a (very) few. Nicholas wanted Unnatural Seeds, so I came back here, altered the page and assumed that the previous "Carving" entry (by an IP) was mischievous. Ee, I were proper vexed. Now I see it in another light - a sudden change of mind by ANet, maybe? Charr hides being inaccessible to the majority of pre-Searing residents? Verrry indurresting. -- snog  rat [[Image:User Snograt signature.png]] 07:52, 17 May 2009 (UTC)


 * He wanted Unnatural Seeds from me. Had no problems turning them in.--Fogeltje 15:52, 18 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Charvings have been collected as often as irises, carapaces, and fins. And CCs have been collected more recently than the-easier-to-farm fins. So, I'm not sure there's evidence for ANet's supposed change of mind.


 * @Foo &mdash; do you remember when you visited him the first time? Did both accounts zone into RV about the same time? Did anyone else see anything else on the 16th? Tennessee Ernie Ford 08:18, 19 May 2009 (UTC)


 * zone in time does not matter. you can reach Nicholas 6:59 (UTC) and click him continuous, you will see 07:00 (UTC) he switch the dialog to the new item Pino 19:35, 19 May 2009 (UTC)


 * I've added Charr Carvings to the history with a note. --mtew 09:41, 21 May 2009 (UTC)


 * @Ford: I remember it was within an hour or two of the switch. nothing more, and can't find any SS. Foo 14:42, 21 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Linsey has stated in her talk page that is must have been a wiki vandal. She says that they haven't changed anything, and the system won't do that. We have either a liar or a bug here. Mith[[Image:User MithranArkanere Star.png]]Talk 00:23, 22 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Even if it happened for a short moment, it was not intended to do so in the first place so we don't need to list it as it just messes up the statistic. poke | talk 07:10, 22 May 2009 (UTC)


 * Linsey would know definitely. With their recurrence today, it very likely was a mistake (or a hoax). Thanks for taking the time to get the straight info. --mtew 07:31, 22 May 2009 (UTC)

Statistical analysis
I cannot see any benefits from this research page. Why we continue? Pino 12:16, 29 May 2009 (UTC)
 * We are here to document the game in the first place, so we will continue collecting the data for each day (and archiving them), so why not just continuing to have a research and statistical data? That way people can make themselves an image of how likely it is that items are repeated after X days and such. poke | talk 13:38, 29 May 2009 (UTC)
 * And to expand on that, I do that to figure out what I should bother keeping rather than clutter up my bags with all the possible options. I generally keep anything that hasn't shown up for a while and vendor the rest... doesn't always work but it does help. Xylia 13:43, 29 May 2009 (UTC)
 * Umm, why would you vend any pre collectible? Each is essentially worth 100g, its quite bad deal to vend it, and if you do turn ins, each kept collectible makes farming run shorter. With charr bags there is enough space to keep one of each. 85.160.71.99 09:32, 31 May 2009 (UTC)
 * You and I have different definitions of "enough space", then. Personally, since I'm also holding on to dye (and spider webs, and the gifts themselves), that's more spaces than I want to take up on a permanent basis. I generally have about half the stuff off the list at any time. (Also, I find standing around hawking stuff in a town extraordinarily mind-numbingly boring. Really, really boring. Seriously, horribly boring. Boring squared would be less boring. This may be why I'm not rich, but at least I'm having fun.) Xylia 11:41, 31 May 2009 (UTC)
 * With a belt pouch and 2 charr bags, you have room for all 13 collectables plus Charr Hides, an Igneous Summoning Stone, black, white, and silver dyes (the rest aren't particularly worth holdiing onto unless you're intending to use them. Silver's debatable), a stack of gifts, and still have 6 slots free for alt weapons, minis, charr salvage kits, etc without touching your main bag. Plus another 5 slots for alt weapons or if you want to hold onto your starter armor (I did, that may just be me), if you get an equipment bag from Nick. If nothing else, you can certainly get a lot better than merchant price from other players, even if it isn't the item of the day, and if you don't mind compromising on the price (say 50g or even 25g apiece if you're in a real rush), it shouldn't take long at all. - Tanetris 12:04, 31 May 2009 (UTC)

Possible repeat
There's some speculation that the combat zquests have started repeating a rotation that includes each of the quests 4 times. Well, Nick's items also reached the 4 times each point (though 1 less day of skale fins and one extra day of enchanted lodestones), and the two items since match the first two items Nick had.

So let me be the first to call June 2 will be Skeletal Limbs. If so, we may just have a pattern here. - Tanetris 07:45, 1 June 2009 (UTC)
 * And there it is. Watch for Unnatural Seeds on the 3rd and Enchanted Lodestones on the 4th. You heard it here first, folks! And people scoffed at the research page as useless... - Tanetris 08:15, 2 June 2009 (UTC)
 * Skale Fin should be today, right? We will see in a few minutes, but it makes me sad. No more surprise :-/ Pino 06:47, 5 June 2009 (UTC)
 * NOW this research page is useless! And people scoffed at the people who deemed it useless Zweistein 07:50, 5 June 2009 (UTC)
 * I dunno &mdash; would this 39 day pattern have been easily discerned without this data? All research pages are useless to those uninterested in patterns and predictability. They are also less useful after a pattern has been determined. In the case of Nick, there's nothing to stop the live team from adjusting the pattern on the fly (and perhaps without a client-side change)...so we might not notice for a while without a research page. Tennessee Ernie Ford 09:27, 5 June 2009 (UTC)

Tanetris Prediction
Based on T's suggestion of 3peats 4peats for each of 13 items, this is the 39-day 52-day prediction beginning with Grawl Necklaces on 31 May:
 * prediction table moved to the page

(Tennessee Ernie Ford 09:29, 5 June 2009 (UTC))
 * Actually 52 days. Fixed (also removed a bunch of extra spaces because otherwise I would never be able to look at this page's code again). Also this should probably go on the proper research page so people can update it at the same time as the list. And I'll just note that I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Enchanted Lodestone days eventually gets replaced by a Skale Fin day so they're all equal. - Tanetris 09:57, 5 June 2009 (UTC)
 * Thanks for fixing that. It's an impressive prediction... and so far, so good. And yeah, it would be good to have the research script update this chart, too. Tennessee Ernie Ford 10:10, 5 June 2009 (UTC)
 * If it comes out that such a prediction is universally usable, you can be sure that something like that will actually be used on the page and that we will announce the items before somebody manually checks it.. poke | talk 13:16, 5 June 2009 (UTC)
 * If these are wholly accurate predictions, I'm wondering if they might be useful on the front page as well, alongside the current item. Flipper 15:22, 10 June 2009 (UTC)
 * What I said still stands as it is. poke | talk 15:51, 10 June 2009 (UTC)

Table needs sort
Research table needs a sort on the chronological date: 2010-02-05, to put it back in its original order. We don't need a sort on Month nor Day nor Day-of-Week. -llandale --The preceding unsigned comment was added by 96.19.33.171 (talk).
 * Just refresh the page. -- FreedomBound [[Image:User_Freedom_Bound_Sig.png|19px]] 15:03, 5 February 2010 (UTC)

Archive page
Could a talented moderator please revise Nicholas Sandford/Research/archive page:

Warning: This page is 32 kilobytes long; some browsers may have problems editing pages approaching or longer than 32kb. Please consider breaking the page into smaller sections.

Thanks! Pino 07:56, 29 July 2010 (UTC)