User:Kanda/Nicholas

This page is aimed at finding what Nicholas the Traveler will likely collect in the remaining zones. It was last updated on July 11th, 2011, after Nicholas had been found.

While you are here, do not forget to watch this other page on the subject. Information there complements what is displayed here.

And if you have the feeling that Nicholas will start over with the exact same pattern after visiting all areas, you can start hoarding previously collected items. A list of those is available on this page.

= Disclaimer =

Farming hints

 * This analysis is not 100% accurate. You can use it to find which trophies have a good chance of being collected someday by Nicholas; please do not assume that items that are not displayed here will not be collected. I do not, and I do not expect you to.
 * Again: these lists are for what should be farmed, not for what can be thrown away for sure!
 * However: since more than a half year that this page is here, Nicholas has not a single time asked for something that was not predicted here.

Hypotheses

 * Nicholas is likely to collect something that drops from the area he appears in. In a few cases he has been known to collect other objects (see below). This analysis does not pretend to predict such behaviour (hence the disclaimer above).
 * If a creature drops several items, Nicholas may collect all of them.
 * Nicholas will visit each and every zone once before eventually starting over.
 * Computation is done assuming that if X trophies appear in one area, the likelihood of Nicholas wanting one of them is 1/X; then adding these scores among every area this trophy appears in. Therefore:
 * Mathematically speaking, this assumes independence, which is not the case; so
 * Total likelihood can be >100%.
 * Factions areas include mission foes as well (Celestials for Nahpui Quarter, for instance)
 * Stackable salvage items are included, except for half-digested/eaten/whatever things

Known cases
So far, Nicholas has asked for: The hypothesis of local trophies thus describes 104 out of 117 cases (89%).
 * [93 times] Local trophies (ie., trophies that dropped from foes in the very zone Nicholas was in);
 * [5 times] Local salvage items: Charr Hide, Luminous Stone, Roaring Ether Heart, Maguuma Spider Web, Pillaged Goods
 * [6 times] Exchanged local trophies (ie. items available by exchanging several local trophies): Mandragor Root Cake, Herring, Bowl of Skalefin Soup, Drake Kabob, Bottle of Vabbian Wine, Pahnai Salad;
 * [4 times] Off-zone trophies: Red Iris Flower, Chromatic Scale, Gloom Seed, Phantom Residue;
 * [7 times] Rare materials: 7 out of 25; it is safe to assume that he won't collect them all, especially the most expensive ones;
 * [2 times] Other items: Branch of Juni Berries, Dwarven Ale.

Items that have appeared since this page is up

 * Mergoyle Skull: was on the 'will appear' list (200% likelihood on the main list)
 * Heket Tongue: was on the 'will appear' list (191% likelihood on the main list)
 * Pile of Elemental Dust: was on the 'will appear' list (165% likelihood on the main list)
 * Putrid Cyst: was on the 'will appear' list (164% likelihood on the main list)
 * Soul Stone: was on the 'will appear' list (133% likelihood on the main list)
 * Tangled Seed: was on the main list (133% likelihood)
 * Leathery Claw: was on the main list (125% likelihood)
 * Mantid Pincer: was on the 'will appear' list (120% likelihood on the main list)
 * Spiked Crest: was on the 'will appear' list (100% likelihood on the main list)
 * Maguuma Mane: was on the main list (100% likelihood); was also on the highly probable items list
 * Mossy Mandible: was on the main list (100% likelihood)
 * Iboga Petal (Pahnai Salad): was on the main list (94% likelihood)
 * Icy Lodestone: was on the main list (91% likelihood); was also on the highly probable items list
 * Sentient Spore (Bottle of Vabbian Wine): was on the main list (89% likelihood)
 * Stone Summit Badge: was on the 'will appear' list (83% likelihood on the main list)
 * Insect Carapace: was on the main list (75% likelihood)
 * Stormy Eye: was on the main list (70% likelihood)
 * Jade Mandible: was on the main list (61% likelihood)
 * Black Pearl: was on the main list (58% likelihood)
 * Alpine Seed: was on the main list (50% likelihood)
 * Superb Charr Carving: was on the main list (50% v)
 * Vermin Hide: was on the main list (50% likelihood)
 * Abnormal Seed: was on the main list (50% likelihood)
 * Mummy Wrapping: was on the main list (45% likelihood)
 * Cobalt Talon: was on the main list (45% likelihood)
 * Copper Crimson Skull Coin: was on the main list (36% likelihood)
 * Berserker Horn: was on the main list (34% likelihood)
 * Behemoth Jaw: was on the main list (33% likelihood)
 * Diamond Djinn Essence: was on the main list (33% likelihood)
 * Mountain Troll Tusk: was on the main list (30% likelihood)
 * Dragon Root: was on the main list (29% likelihood)
 * Feathered Scalp: was on the main list (25% likelihood)
 * Silver Bullion Coin: was on the main list (24% likelihood)
 * Gruesome Ribcage: was on the main list (20% likelihood)
 * Sentient Lodestone: was on the main list (20% likelihood)
 * Enslavement Stone: was on the main list (16% likelihood)

= Items that will most likely appear =
 * Charr Carving: only unused trophy in the Flame Temple Corridor
 * Celestial Essence: only unused trophy in Nahpui Quarter
 * Geode: only unused trophy in Yatendi Canyons
 * Krait Skin: has already been collected in Arbor Bay during a bug
 * Frigid Heart: only unused trophy in Spearhead Peak, along with Dolyak Hide. Do you seriously think Nicholas could ask for these?

Other highly probable items
none at the time

= General Likelihood =
 * Charr Carving: 133% (2 areas)
 * Celestial Essence: 100% (1 area)
 * Geode: 100% (1 area)
 * Krait Skin: 100% (1 area)
 * Luxon Pendant: 66% (2 areas)
 * Ancient Eye: 50% (1 area)
 * Dolyak Hide: 50% (1 area)
 * Ebon Spider Leg: 50% (1 area)
 * Frigid Heart: 50% (1 area)
 * Kraken Eye: 50% (1 area)
 * Frigid Mandragor Husk: 45% (2 areas)
 * Frozen Wurm Husk: 45% (2 areas)
 * Jotun Pelt: 45% (2 areas)
 * Stone Summit Emblem: 45% (2 areas)
 * Silken Spider Web: 35% (2 areas)
 * Feathered Crest: 33% (1 area)
 * Fibrous Mandragor Root: 33% (1 area)
 * Mantid Ungula: 33% (1 area)
 * Oni Claw: 33% (1 area)
 * Scorched Seed: 33% (1 area)
 * Singed Gargoyle Skull: 33% (1 area)
 * Skale Fang: 33% (1 area)
 * Stolen Supplies: 33% (1 area)
 * Dusty Insect Carapace: 25% (1 area)
 * Giant Tusk: 25% (1 area)
 * Sandblasted Lodestone: 25% (1 area)
 * Mountain Root: 20% (1 area)
 * Fledgling Skree Wing: 18% (2 areas)
 * Insect Appendage: 18% (2 areas)
 * Juvenile Termite Leg: 18% (2 areas)
 * Sentient Root: 18% (2 areas)
 * Sentient Seed: 18% (2 areas)
 * Skale Claw: 18% (2 areas)
 * Skale Tooth: 18% (2 areas)
 * Spider Web: 18% (2 areas)
 * Keen Oni Claw: 16% (1 area)
 * Mantis Pincer: 16% (1 area)
 * Skull Juju: 16% (1 area)
 * Stone Horn: 16% (1 area)
 * Warden Horn: 16% (1 area)
 * Bleached Shell: 12% (1 area)
 * Encrusted Lodestone: 12% (1 area)
 * Forgotten Seal: 12% (1 area)
 * Iridescent Griffon Wing: 12% (1 area)
 * Losaru Hide: 12% (1 area)
 * Losaru Mane: 12% (1 area)
 * Minotaur Hide: 12% (1 area)
 * Sand Giant's Bracer: 12% (1 area)
 * Skeleton Bone: 10% (1 area)
 * Copper Shilling: 8% (1 area)
 * Rinkhal Talon: 8% (1 area)
 * Stolen Goods: 8% (1 area)
 * Stolen Shipment: 8% (1 area)
 * Ancient Lodestone: no area left
 * Animal Hide: no area left
 * Archaic Kappa Shell: no area left
 * Ashen Wurm Husk: no area left
 * Augmented Flesh: no area left
 * Beetle Egg: no area left
 * Bleached Carapace: no area left
 * Blob of Ooze: no area left
 * Blood Drinker Pelt: no area left
 * Bonesnap Shell: no area left
 * Bull Trainer Giant Jawbone: no area left
 * Corrosive Spider Leg: no area left
 * Curved Minotaur Horn: no area left
 * Dark Claw: no area left
 * Dark Flame Fang: no area left
 * Dark Remains: no area left
 * Demonic Fang: no area left
 * Demonic Remains: no area left
 * Destroyer Core: no area left
 * Dredge Manifesto: no area left
 * Dryder Web: no area left
 * Dune Burrower Jaw: no area left
 * Ebon Spider Web: no area left
 * Elder Kappa Shell: no area left
 * Enchanted Vine: no area left
 * Ettin Hide: no area left
 * Fiery Crest: no area left
 * Fleshreaver Morsel: no area left
 * Forest Minotaur Hide: no area left
 * Frozen Remnant: no area left
 * Frozen Shell: no area left
 * Fungal Root: no area left
 * Gargantuan Jawbone: no area left
 * Ghostly Remains: no area left
 * Glacial Stone: no area left
 * Golden Rin Relic: no area left
 * Golem Runestone: no area left
 * Gruesome Sternum: no area left
 * Hill Giant's Bracer: no area left
 * Huge Jawbone: no area left
 * Hunting Minotaur Horn: no area left
 * Igneous Ettin Hide: no area left
 * Igneous Hump: no area left
 * Igneous Shell: no area left
 * Igneous Spider Leg: no area left
 * Immolated Djinn Essence: no area left
 * Incubus Wing: no area left
 * Ivory Troll Tusk: no area left
 * Jungle Skale Fin: no area left
 * Kappa Hatchling Shell: no area left
 * Kappa Shell: no area left
 * Kirin Horn: no area left
 * Kurzick Bauble: no area left
 * Kuskale Claw: no area left
 * Lavastrider Appendage: no area left
 * Leather Belt: no area left
 * Lustrous Stone: no area left
 * Mandragor Carapace: no area left
 * Mandragor Husk: no area left
 * Molten Claw: no area left
 * Molten Eye: no area left
 * Molten Heart: no area left
 * Mountain Minotaur Hide: no area left
 * Naga Pelt: no area left
 * Obsidian Burrower Jaw: no area left
 * Oni Talon: no area left
 * Ornate Grawl Necklace: no area left
 * Patch of Simian Fur: no area left
 * Pulsating Growth: no area left
 * Rawhide Belt: no area left
 * Scar Behemoth Jaw: no area left
 * Seared Ribcage: no area left
 * Searing Burrower Jaw: no area left
 * Sentient Vine: no area left
 * Shadowy Crest: no area left
 * Shadowy Husk: no area left
 * Silver Crimson Skull Coin: no area left
 * Skelk Fang: no area left
 * Smoking Remains: no area left
 * Snowy Centaur Hide: no area left
 * Snowy Ettin Hide: no area left
 * Spiny Seed: no area left
 * Stolen Provisions: no area left
 * Stone Claw: no area left
 * Stone Remnants: no area left
 * Tundra Giant's Bracer: no area left
 * Umbral Eye: no area left
 * Umbral Shell: no area left
 * Umbral Skeletal Limb: no area left
 * Unctuous Remains: no area left
 * Undead Bone: no area left
 * Vaettir Essence: no area left
 * Vampiric Fang: no area left
 * Venerable Mantid Pincer: no area left
 * White Mantle Badge: no area left
 * White Mantle Emblem: no area left

= Areas where all local trophies have been collected =
 * Scoundrel's Rise
 * Shenzun Tunnels
 * Battledepths
 * Sunward Marches

= Remaining areas and trophies (charts) =

= Remaining areas and trophies (links) =

Ascalon

 * Diessa Lowlands: Charr Carving, Singed Gargoyle Skull, Scorched Seed
 * Flame Temple Corridor: Charr Carving

Northern Shiverpeaks
All areas have been visited once.

Kryta

 * Scoundrel's Rise: nothing left

Maguuma

 * Sage Lands: Ancient Eye, Ebon Spider Leg

Crystal Desert

 * Vulture Drifts: Encrusted Lodestone, Forgotten Seal, Iridescent Griffon Wing, Losaru Mane, Losaru Hide, Bleached Shell, Minotaur Hide, Sand Giant's Bracer

Southern Shiverpeaks

 * Spearhead Peak: Dolyak Hide, Frigid Heart

Ring of Fire Islands
All areas have been visited once.

Shing Jea

 * Jaya Bluffs: Oni Claw, Feathered Crest, Stolen Supplies

Kaineng City

 * Nahpui Quarter: Celestial Essence
 * Shenzun Tunnels: nothing left

Echovald Forest

 * The Eternal Grove: Luxon Pendant, Keen Oni Claw, Skull Juju, Stone Horn, Mantis Pincer, Warden Horn

Jade Sea

 * Boreas Seabed: Kraken Eye, Luxon Pendant

Istan

 * Cliffs of Dohjok: Spider Web, Rinkhal Talon, Fledgling Skree Wing, Copper Shilling, Insect Appendage, Juvenile Termite Leg, Sentient Root, Sentient Seed, Skale Claw, Skale Tooth, Stolen Goods, Stolen Shipment
 * Fahranur, The First City: Spider Web, Silken Spider Web, Fledgling Skree Wing, Insect Appendage, Juvenile Termite Leg, Sentient Root, Sentient Seed, Skale Claw, Skale Tooth, Skeleton Bone

Kourna

 * Sunward Marches: nothing left

Vabbi

 * Yatendi Canyons: Geode

Desolation

 * The Shattered Ravines: Silken Spider Web, Dusty Insect Carapace, Sandblasted Lodestone, Giant Tusk

Charr Homelands

 * Grothmar Wardowns: Fibrous Mandragor Root, Mantid Ungula, Skale Fang

Far Shiverpeaks

 * Battledepths: nothing left
 * Bjora Marches: Stone Summit Emblem, Frigid Mandragor Husk, Jotun Pelt, Frozen Wurm Husk
 * Norrhart Domains: Stone Summit Emblem, Frigid Mandragor Husk, Jotun Pelt, Mountain Root, Frozen Wurm Husk

Tarnished Coast

 * Arbor Bay: Krait Skin (has already appeared before being moved)