Talk:Miniature Celestial Rabbit

How lucky?
It's tail wagging is way too cute. Miskav 21:45, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
 * As popular as the rabbits are in the GW world, I can see this one becoming one of the most wanted minis... but not much than next year mini, is Kuunavang mini was popular, a celestial kuunie would be mega awesome. Lokheit 23:45, 3 February 2011 (UTC)
 * Only had to use 30 fortunes to get rabbit! Ramei Arashi 05:26, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * Either the drop rate for this has increased compared to previous years or I'm just extremely lucky. I got 5 of them from 250 Lunar Fortunes. --Manassas  [[File: User Manassas Mannysig.png]] 08:02, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * You seem to be lucky; I have 2-3 guildies getting 1 from 40-50 and not trying anymore...and a lot opening stacks without success. (However, that's not enough data to say one way or the other.) — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 08:49, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, you are quite lucky, but I guess it all balances out when you take the average? I've opened several stacks and haven't gotten anything but some fireworks, most other ones were cash or effects.  M u e s l i [[Image:User_Muesli_sig.gif|User_Muesli_sig.gif]]‎ 08:55, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * The drop rate isn't increased, it's essentially a gamble.  Last year I opened over 300 fortunes and got no tiger.  Other people opened just a few and got one.  The statistical probability of getting one is just the same as every year, but nobody is -guaranteed- to get one from a certain amount of fortunes. 193.215.199.34 09:57, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * You could be right .. but then again you could be wrong. Only thing we know so far is, that we don't know. Empiric data is far from strong enough to conclude anything at all. But maybe you're the guy who programmed the droprates? -~-Manassas  [[File: User Manassas Mannysig.png]] 10:33, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * No, just the guy that keeps opening stacks of fortunes and get nothing. My point I guess is that it's more likely that users that get a lot of minis out of a few fortunes are more likely to post somewhere and brag about it, than someone who open a lot and get one or even nothing.  But ok, I won't pretend to know anything that others don't.  But I stand by my assumption that the drop rate isn't any higher this year based on my drops and that of my guildies (who aren't exactly swimming in rabbits either) ;P 193.215.199.34 23:25, 4 February 2011 (UTC)


 * The empirical data is not as weak as you suggest (especially not for prior years). However, I can offer some estimates as to how lucky Manassas might be if the drop rate is 0.5% (as we believe it was in 2008-2010). I used a spreadsheet to simulate 1000 people opening 250 fortunes, with a 0.5% drop rate:
 * About 1/3 of the sample group finds exactly one mini.
 * About 1/4 find two minis.
 * About 1/8 find either three or four minis.
 * 4 to 12 people get 5.
 * 0 to 2 people find more than 5.


 * So, Manassas: your five minis from a stack is about as lucky as 8% of the players doing the same (assuming a drop rate of 0.5%); it's lucky, but not fantastically so. Oh, and for those people who, if they didn't have bad luck, wouldn't have no luck at all: around 280-300 people will open a stack and not find a fluffy-tailed celestial in any of them. — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 11:29, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * @TEF, I was merely reacting to Anons statement that "The droprate isn't increased" which we, at the time of writing, indeed had very weak empiri about (I believe around 400 recorded drops on the research page).--Manassas  [[File: User Manassas Mannysig.png]] 11:37, 4 February 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, then I owe you an apology: you are correct, we don't have that much data from 2011.


 * Of course, a reasonable case can be made that ANet rarely changes drop rates and, when they do, there is almost always (a) an announcement and/or (b) some substantial and related issue to resolve and/or (c) some other directly connected game feature/mechanic is also changed, which implies that drop rates should be presumed to be the same unless there's overwhelming evidence to the contrary or ANet tells us so.


 * However, that doesn't change your main point, which is: we don't have close to enough data to confirm or deny any particular theory, regardless of how solid its foundation. So, again, my apologies for implying otherwise. (And maybe, more importantly, gz on your recent acquisitions!) — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 12:09, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * Hugs* --Manassas  [[File: User Manassas Mannysig.png]] 12:13, 4 February 2011 (UTC)

(Reset indent) It's the same problem with applied statistics. Last year I used 500 fortunes and got 4 tigers. This year I used 500 fortunes and got 1 rabbit. Just because statistically you should get more or less, doesn't mean the stats are wrong. Like I said with Guardian: You could flip a coin 500 times and get tails every time, doesn't mean the odds aren't 50/50. I guess we should just be happy .33~% gave us 1 out of 500. FleshAndFaith 19:33, 6 February 2011 (UTC)


 * Your point is well taken F&F. Just because the odds are good, doesn't mean you will get a good result.


 * Mathematical correction: there's almost no chance you can flip a fair coin 50x and get tails every time. (In fact, anything less than 13 heads from 50 tosses is suspiciously low.) Drop rate correction: it's 0.45-0.65% for cele rabbits, as confirmed by John Stumme. Our guess is 0.5% atm.  — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 20:17, 6 February 2011 (UTC)
 * That's just my point: almost no chance, mathematically speaking, but still entirely possible in the real world. Like Ramei and myself, who both got 1 rabbit, him from 30 and myself from 500 fortunes. FleshAndFaith 23:28, 8 February 2011 (UTC)


 * Erm, mathematical possibility doesn't mean the same as entirely possible in our lifetime. Almost no chance means ain't gonna happen in the real world as we experience it; if you flip heads less than 13 times in 50 coin tosses, I'm gonna test your coin (and check your sleeves). In contrast, none of the situations that F&F listed are all that unusual if the rate is (as we think) 0.5%: 2 drops/stack, 4 drops/stack, 1 drop/500, 0 drops/500.


 * Even so, your main point is still correct: good odds don't guarantee good results. — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 01:58, 9 February 2011 (UTC)

I think we've all learned a valuable lesson today: Math is stupid. FleshAndFaith 06:33, 9 February 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the chances for getting the minis has gone down. Why? Because in 2009 I had 3 Factions characters doing the quests to get tokens and they all got an ox. In 2010 I had 4 Factions characters and only got 2 tigers. 2011 I have 6 Factions characters and only got 2 rabbits. Ramei Arashi 09:05, 9 February 2011 (UTC)

Bunny sightings
(Separating distinct thread of people reporting results.)

I got the mini in ~90 (i think i got it at 88 or 89, not 100% I know i used only 90) fortunes opened (this was before the last update). My father got the mini after 319 fortunes opened (after the last update). Based on this (well not enough data i know) i estimate the chance to get one to be ~0.5% .(forgot to sign) Thedukesd 12:35, 4 February 2011 (UTC)


 * I got 4 with 194 fortunes, last year I got nothing with around 150, the year before I got 4 oxes with labout ess than 150, seems to be just lucky streaks. Lokheit 12:54, 4 February 2011 (UTC)


 * After 8 Lunar Fortunes, got a Celestial Rabbit. Then proceeded to open another 330 and got none. Should I be angry or laughing my head off? Lahmia The Vampire 17:06, 4 February 2011 (UTC)


 * After 333 fortunes no rabbit, I think Im going to cry
 * After a stack: got 2 ;) --Orgeron 19:50, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, after collecting enough tokens for about 294 fortunes, I got no mini this year either. I wonder why I bother.  Now to buy the rabbit. 85.19.140.9
 * Add another 100 fortunes that I got, with no mini still. :) 85.19.140.9 23:07, 4 February 2011 (UTC)

20:27, 4 February 2011 (UTC) (Reset indent) Got one in my 14th fortune :) Now lets see if I can conjure up some more. Twam 94.209.65.245 22:02, 4 February 2011 (UTC)
 * i got 3 out of 100 fortunesLongway 08:19, 5 February 2011 (UTC)
 * I got 3 out of 20 fortunes^^ 213.166.217.219 10:55, 5 February 2011 (UTC)
 * I just got one after 130ish fortunes, so cute ^_^ Kevio 19:00, 5 February 2011 (UTC)
 * I opened about 400 fortunes and got four bunnies. One for my first 250, and then one for my next 50, and then two in a row for my last fifty.  Those last two were a shock.  O_O  128.113.201.222 02:33, 6 February 2011 (UTC)

I opened 750 and got none, gave up and bought it for 45k instead XD - GreenEarth28

Opened little over 600 and no bunny, oh well QuePedito 07:23, 6 February 2011 (UTC)
 * I have opened about 300~ and have had 6 or 7.... Just lucky I guess. 2.120.38.219 21:22, 6 February 2011 (UTC)
 * got one in 125 fortunes (on the 124th =P )--76.252.230.34 16:30, 6 February 2011 (UTC)
 * 55 Lunar Fortunes, 1 bunneh. :) 'Overlord Frosty ' 18:37, 6 February 2011 (UTC)

I opened 7 stacks and bagged 13 rabbits. Submitted by Mindswamp. 2/7/11
 * Opened and entire stack and a rabbit on the VERY FUCKING LAST ONE.-- Briar  User Briar Sig 3.jpg  The Spider  06:56, 7 February 2011 (UTC)
 * Interestingly, I also got my rabbit from the very last fortune I opened. And I opened approximately 300 of them, about 80 at a time. 78.92.2.71 10:38, 7 February 2011 (UTC)
 * 2009 200 LFs and 3 Oxen
 * 2010 470 LFs and 7 Tigers
 * 2011 1500 LFs and 6 Rabbits
 * Here's hoping 2012 is more favorable. ;) Sardaukar  [[Image:User_Sardaukar_sig.png]] 02:05, 8 February 2011 (UTC)
 * I got first rabbit after using only 30 fortunes. Used up the fortunes and got fireworks. Did quests on more toons, got more fortunes and got 2nd rabbit after only 30 fortunes. Third time, no rabbit. Ramei Arashi 09:08, 9 February 2011 (UTC)

Does This Minipet add to "Devotion"?
Does the mini celestial rabbit count for the Hall Of Monuments Calculator? I was unsure so I thought I'd ask. -- Flaming Renegade   23:12, 9 February 2011 (UTC)
 * Sure, any miniature counts (even the ones that haven't been released yet will count as soon as they arrive). — Tennessee Ernie Ford ( TEF ) 23:18, 9 February 2011 (UTC)