User:Power WM/UW Chest Log

Underworld Chest Log
Since I feel I've run out of things to do in Guild Wars besides The Underworld, I'm going to dedicate my remaining time to recording my party's chest drops. The inspiration for this project lies in the fact that I've completed The Underworld something over four hundred times and I have yet to receive a Miniature Dhuum, so I myself would like to know what the drop rate is. I'm not sure as is anyone else if something we are unaware of influences end-game chest drops (similar to the mechanics in place to weaken farming), so this research may be skewed since I have already done so many runs. I'm going to record a set amount of chests (in hard mode); I haven't decided yet, but I plan to record between 100-500 chests.

We already know that in hard mode, there is a 100% chance for the chest to drop: a Diamond, 2 Ghastly Summoning Stones, a Lockpick, a Phantom Key, a Glob of Ectoplasm, and a Passage Scroll to the Underworld.

In addition, you will receive two random items (sometimes duplicates) which may be any combination of the following: random gold-rarity equippable items, Dhuum's Soul Reapers, Miniature Smite Crawlers, Miniature Dhuums, Rubies, Sapphires, and additional Globs of Ectoplasm, Diamonds, or Passage Scrolls to the Underworld.

These additional two drops are what I will record.

Table of Observed Drops
Since I started this project, I have done 38 UW runs!

Statistics

 * Theoretically, the chance of getting two of the same item from the same chest (e.g. two Mini Dhuums) should be the chance of getting one squared.
 * As the sample size increases, the variability of the data will decrease. (Meaning it becomes more accurate).
 * Since I am recording the drops of my parties, the total number of runs can be calculated by (Total Chest Drops / 16). Since there are 8 members in a party, and they each get two drops (16 total per run). This is no longer possible because I've been having runs where people disconnect, and I also want freedom to record drops from 3-man and 4-man runs. To see how many runs I've done now, refer to the bullet under the table. I'll include a new section below with a list of the dates where fewer than 8 people opened the chest on a run.

Dates with less than 8 people runs

 * 04/16/11 - 2 runs; on 1 run a party member disconnected before chest.
 * 04/22/11 - 5 runs; on 1 run a party member left early.
 * 04/23/11 - 4 runs; on 1 run a party member disconnected as soon as the chest spawned. Must've sucked to be him :(.

Nice Items That Drop
Below I will list gold equippable items that are received which the Guild Wars community generally accept as having value. I will also put a star beside numbers in the table to represent items which dropped for me.