Talk:Obsidian Shard

Necessary?

If you already put up a link to creatures that drop obsidian shards, is it really necessary to sum a(n incomplete) list of creatures in FoW that drop these? Class 18:13, 24 December 2009 (UTC)

Night fall version of shadow army question.

Do they also drop obby shards and rubies and sapphires?

For Obsidian Shards, no. Nothing outside of FoW drops them. For rubies/sapphires it's probably the normal everything-has-a-chance-to-drop-them chance. --Valshia 20:40, 10 February 2011 (UTC)

If you read the article you will notice: "Random drop from specific creatures in The Fissure of Woe." [1] --Silver Edge 06:48, 13 February 2011 (UTC)

Not everything can drop rubies and sapphires, see Category talk:Drops ruby#Not all monsters drop rubies. --Silver Edge 06:48, 13 February 2011 (UTC)

I stand corrected then. --Valshia 18:16, 13 February 2011 (UTC)

Drop Data

Here's some data I gathered during my spirit-spammer runs through the spider cave (solo runs, normal mode). It's inconclusive, but maybe someone else is interested in extending it.

Monster	Drops	Kills	Expected drop rate	interval (95% confidence)	interval (99% confidence)
Snarling Driftwood	5	210	2.38%	0.94% - 5.48%	0.61% - 6.91%
Armored Cave Spider	24	714	3.36%	2.24% - 4.97%	1.96% - 5.60%
Shadow Beast	1	18	5.56%	0.28% - 27.78%	0.06% - 36.11%

Haven't seen a shard from the monsters that aren't listed as dropping shards, either. Didn't bother counting Shadow Army creatures, because I rarely killed any.

The confidence interval is the interval of all possible drop rates that I cannot reject with p<0.05 (p<0.01). That doesn't mean that "it's 95% (99%) likely that the actual drop rate is in that interval", it just means that "for any drop rate outside that interval, my measured drops are less than 5% (1%) likely to happen". Not sure how mathematically sound that approach is, but it shows that even 700 kills aren't enough to be conclusive.

Bonus Points: deduce from the kill counts how many runs I failed or abandoned, and where :p Tub 10:25, 31 May 2011 (UTC)