User:Tennessee Ernie Ford/Price checks/How much are Strongboxes worth

How much are Strongboxes worth?

This information is likely inaccurate — it has not been reviewed or updated since Summer 2012.

The value of strongboxes is tied closely to the value of the minis...but probably not enough to justify the drastically different trade prices of the four types. (However, the greater supply of Glad-boxes does help explain their lower trade value.)

Average values

• 3 656 — over 1000s of boxes.
• 2 531 — if you don't get a mini or EL tonic (i.e. most of us) or even a weapon.
• 4 728 — if you open a lot of boxes and do get all of the above.

Data

Summary by type

By Type	Est. Val	Est %	Est Val %	#
Drunk	325.1	13.7%	8.9%	70
EL Tonic	181.5	0.0%	5.0%	0
Mini	264.0	0.0%	7.2%	0
Commodity	1370.5	30.9%	37.5%	173
Party	458.9	34.5%	12.6%	184
Summons	150.0	6.0%	4.1%	33
Sweet	314.2	13.7%	8.6%	75
Weapon	591.5	0.4%	16.2%	2
Totals	3656	99.3%	100.0%	537

Summary by type, if standard luck

The same as summary by type, but leaving off any item that has a drop rate below 0.5% (notably, the minis and EL tonics).

Unlucky	Est. Val	Est %	Est Val %	#
Drunk	325.1	13.7%	12.8%	70
EL Tonic	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0
Mini	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0
Commodity	1282.5	30.5%	50.7%	173
Party	458.9	34.5%	18.1%	184
Summons	150.0	6.0%	5.9%	33
Sweet	314.2	13.7%	12.4%	75
Weapon	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	2
Totals	2531	98.4%	100.0%	537

Summary by type, if very lucky

Same as above, but assuming you get top, erm, dollar, from the most expensive tonics and minis.

By Type	Est. Val	Est %	Est Val %	#
Drunk	325.1	13.7%	6.9%	70
EL Tonic	990.0	0.0%	20.9%	0
Mini	528.0	0.0%	11.2%	0
Commodity	1370.5	30.9%	29.0%	173
Party	458.9	34.5%	9.7%	184
Summons	150.0	6.0%	3.2%	33
Sweet	314.2	13.7%	6.6%	75
Weapon	591.5	0.4%	12.5%	2
Totals	4728	99.3%	100.0%	537

TEF strongboxes

Item	Rate?	Expected value	Type	Units	Price per unit	Value	Count
EL Tonic A	0.02%	49.5	EL Tonic	30	8250	247.5k	0
EL Tonic B	0.02%	132.0	EL Tonic	80	8250	660.0k	0
Mini	0.02%	264.0	Mini	160	8250	1320.0k	0
Battle Isle Iced Tea	2.17%	119.5	Drunk	50	110	5.5k	12
Firewater x 3	6.70%	60.3	Drunk	9	100	.9k	30
Firewater x10	4.84%	145.3	Drunk	30	100	3.0k	28
Bottle Rocket x10	6.15%	61.5	Party	10	100	1.0k	28
Champagne Popper x10	6.15%	61.5	Party	10	100	1.0k	42
Crate of Fireworks x 5	5.00%	75.0	Party	15	100	1.5k	26
Party Beacon	2.17%	119.5	Party	50	110	5.5k	14
Sparkler x10	6.15%	61.5	Party	10	100	1.0k	29
Zaishen Tonic x3	8.90%	80.1	Party	9	100	.9k	45
Crème Brulee x 3	6.70%	60.3	Sweet	9	100	.9k	42
Crème Brulee x10	4.84%	145.3	Sweet	30	100	3.0k	24
Delicious Cake	2.17%	108.6	Sweet	50	100	5.0k	9
Flame of Balthazar x 1	7.00%	140.0	Commodity	1	2000	2.0k	42
Flame of Balthazar x 3	0.00%	0.0	Commodity	3	2000	6.0k	0
Flame of Balthazar x10	0.50%	100.0	Commodity	10	2000	20.0k	3
Golden Flame x 1	7.25%	435.0	Commodity	3	2000	6.0k	39
Golden Flame x 3	0.00%	0.0	Commodity	9	2000	18.0k	0
Golden Flame x10	0.00%	0.0	Commodity	30	2000	60.0k	0
Zaishen Key x1	1.50%	82.5	Commodity	1	5500	5.5k	7
Zaishen Key x5	0.20%	55.0	Commodity	5	5500	27.5k	1
Zoin (Copper) x50	7.50%	150.0	Commodity	1	2000	2.0k	41
Zoin (Gold) x2	0.20%	33.0	Commodity	2	8250	16.5k	3
Zoin (Silver) x2	5.00%	200.0	Commodity	2	2000	4.0k	28
Zoin (Silver) x5	1.75%	175.0	Commodity	5	2000	10.0k	9
Zaishen Stone x5	6.00%	150.0	Summons	5	500	2.5k	33
Demrikov's Judgment	0.09%	115.2	Weapon	15	8250	123.8k	0
Heleyne's Insight	0.09%	169.0	Weapon	22	8250	181.5k	1
Torivos' Rage	0.09%	76.8	Weapon	10	8250	82.5k	0
Vetaura's Harbinger	0.09%	230.4	Weapon	30	8250	247.5k	1
Totals	99.3%	$3,656					537

Key

• Rate — the estimated rate based on similar items. Totals add to less than 100% because of this.
• Expected value — the value times the rate, i.e. the average value of this item assuming you opened tens of thousands of boxes.
• Type — TEF designation used for summarizing results
• Units — used to determine value: ectos for items sold in ; points for consumption-title items; and cash for other items.
• Price per unit — the per unit price, e.g. 1250/lockpick or 100/point.
• Value — the value, i.e. price per unit * the number of units (ignore the previous two columns if you like)
• Count — how many of these did TEF see overall?

Wiki data

coming soon

Evaluation complications & assumptions

Complications

There are three issues associated with evaluating the value of Strongboxes, so I've made these simplifying assumptions to address them:

Root cause	Issue	Simplifying assumption
Four different boxes	Do we assess each individually?	Yes, I've chosen to assume that the drop rates are programmed identically and provide a high-end and low-end value, based on the mini/EL tonic values.
Some items drop in varying amounts; they wiki tracks them as a single drop.	Do people even count correctly? (e.g. do they remember that it's one drop for either 10 flasks of firewater or 3 flasks...?) How do we determine the expected value if we don't know the true amounts?	For strongboxes, I'm using my own results from over 500 boxes (using the wiki for validation rather than raw numbers). I've also assumed that similar items drop with identical frequency, e.g. I've used one percentage for Beacons, Cake, and Tea.
Some of the contents trade infrequently.	How do we determine reasonable trade value?	This is not unique to strongboxes. I do the same thing I've done for other items: I watch the trade markets, look at the Estimator, and talk to other traders.