User:AirportManager/NineRings

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Table of Contents

Odds Table for Nine Rings

Future

Future

Welcome to the AirportManagers User page on the offical Guild Wars Wiki. Here I will talk about some of the things I like to do in Guild Wars while at the same time dive deep into the mechanics of Guild Wars. I hope you enjoy what you see.


Odds Table for Nine Rings[edit]

To collect emperial data use this checklist.
The areas in the gray squares are where you
can expect results on average.
User AirportManager NineRingsDataCollection.jpg

Short Summary

Each ring in Nine Rings will loss 10.56 tickets per game on average, although different rings will fluctuate more than others. The center ring is the most stable, the sides being less stable, and the corners being the most unstable.

Basic Percentages Table

Ring Position

Grand Prize

Runner Up

Percent Wins

Precent Looses

NET Gain (loss)

Corner

11.11% (1/9)

22.22% (2/9)

33.33%

66.67%

(33.33%)

Side

11.11% (1/9)

33.33% (3/9)

44.44%

55.56%

(11.11%)

Center

11.11% (1/9)

44.44% (4/9)

55.56%

44.44%

11.11%

Winnings - Admission Price

In each game the amount you win depends what ring position you stand in and if your ring, the ring next to you, or a different ring wins. The table below takes the amount you would win in any ring subtracts the cost of admission.

Ring Position

Grand Prize

Runner Up

Total Payout

Admission

NET Gain (loss)

Corner

45

5

50

10

40

Side

30

5

35

10

25

Center

15

5

20

10

10

Winnings Percentages

Taking the amount of winnings times the percent of time you can be expected to win that amount yields the following table. This is the result of playing only one game on average.

Ring Position

Grand Prize

Runner Up

Percent Wins

Precent Looses

NET Gain (loss)

Corner

5

1.11

6.11

6.67

(0.56)

Side

3.33

1.67

5

5.56

(0.56)

Center

1.67

2.22

3.89

4.44

(0.56)

Winnings

If you take the previouse table (results per game) times the number of rounds in a cycle (19), here is the results you would get on average.

Ring Position

Grand Prize

Runner Up

Lucky Points

UnLucky Points

NET Gain (loss)

Corner

98.00

21.11

116.11

12.66

(10.56)

Side

63.33

31.67

95.00

10.55

(10.56)

Center

31.67

42.22

73.89

08.44

(10.56)

Effects on Lucky Unlucky Titles

If you are playing Nine Rings you are probably working on your Lucky and Unlucky tiles. Assuming you are playing with only 250 tickets, you will only be able to play 23 (250 tickets / 10.56 average number of tickets lost per cycle) cycles (437 games). The table below shows you how this will affect your titles. This data suggests that by using a corner ring position you can progress both your lucky and unlucky titles faster than any other ring position.

Ring Position

Grand Prize

Runner Up

Lucky Points

Unlucky Points

NET Gain (loss)

Corner

2254.00

485.53

2670.53

291.18

(242.88)

Side

1456.59

728.41

2185.00

242.65

(242.88)

Center

728.41

971.06

1699.47

194.12

(242.88)

Sample Data

Here are 10 samples I choose at random to conduct some calculations on. Each of these samples came from the same corner ring opposite from the MC. In the below chart, the Red squares are areas where the empirical evidence had a higher value then what you would expect from the statistical information. Green squares are areas where the statistical value was higher than the empirical value. The total variation is less than 3% and it can be assumed that with a larger sample size the 3% error would dissipate. Also of interest is that you can see how in each additional round of Nine Rings the percent of Grand Prize, Runners-Up, and Losses decrease. If we knew the order in which the winnings were allocated it may be possible to determine if there is a “sweet spot” to enter the game and exit rather then stay in full cycle. Sort of playing the stock market.

User AirportManager NineRingsStudy.jpg