User:Tennessee Ernie Ford/Price checks/How much are GotTs worth
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| This information is likely inaccurate — it has not been reviewed or updated since Summer 2012. |
How much are GotTs worth?[edit]
A single Gift of the Traveler is worth about 3
466
Kamadan-tradeable items, which is somewhat lower than the lowest typical WTS price (4). This begs two interrelated questions:
- What does it mean to say that a GotT has a specific value?
- How much should I pay for GotT?
- Specific value
There are two ways to objectively measure the value of GotTs:
- How much are people willing to pay? / How much do you have to pay so that someone will part with one?
- That's the same as asking what are the WTB/WTS prices, which are 4 and 5.
- That's the same as asking what are the WTB/WTS prices, which are 4
- How much value is inside each GotT?
- We can calculate this by taking the expected drop rate (using GWW data) of each item and multiplying it by the trade value of the contents. For example, Hunter's Ale sells for ~100 and there's a 4.95% chance that 10 drop, so we multiply 4.95% by 1 to find out that GotTs contain about 49.5 worth of H-Ale.
- Do that for each possible drop and we get, roughly 3 466. See below.
- We can calculate this by taking the expected drop rate (using GWW data) of each item and multiplying it by the trade value of the contents. For example, Hunter's Ale sells for ~100
- How much should I pay?
Let's assume that your interest is solely in the contents of the package. (Those who deal in GotT arbitrage could care less about true value; they only care how fast they can buy for how cheap...and then how fast they can sell for how much.)
You have a choice:
- Sell the GotTs for 4 500 and purchase the specific contents that you need. Or,
- Painstakingly double-click hundreds of GotTs, use the items that you need, and then spend hours trading away the ones you don't for the best possible price.
Accordingly, you are better off selling the GotT and buying what you need unless you are extraordinarily lucky. You spend less time clicking, less time trading, and end up with about 400 extra per GotT. In other words, you are financially better off selling off the GotT on Mondays (when you can often get 5) — to make up for lost the lost opportunities (400/gift and your time), you need to hit the jackpot early.
- However... financially better off isn't the only measure.
There's something inherently fun about opening gifts and hoping for good stuff. Most government-sponsored lotteries offer approximately 50% of expected value for each ticket, e.g. on average, you should expect to lose a dollar for every two that you spend on lottery tickets. In that light, GotT prices are a bargain: for the chance to win big, you pay a premium of around 10% (instead of the 100% premium for Lotto).
Data[edit]
The tables represent data from these sources:
- Guild Wars Wiki drop rate data → used to determine the chance of any particular drop. (Last compiled some time ago, but the ratios haven't notably changed. Currently based on over 20,000 GotT.)
- Trade data, from participating in sales, from the Estimator, and from Guild Wars Guru.
- The most controversial numbers come from the Everlasting Tonics and Miniatures (volatile prices, since they are rare). However, those represent only 10% of the total value of each GotT, i.e. around 400.
- I'm confident that the rest of the trade valuations are within 10% of the midpoint of any fair pricing.
- When in doubt, I generally post a higher price here, so that the GotTs are more likely to be overvalued.
- The most controversial numbers come from the Everlasting Tonics and Miniatures (volatile prices, since they are rare). However, those represent only 10% of the total value of each GotT, i.e. around 400
Summary[edit]
| By Type | Expected value | Fraction of GotT value |
|---|---|---|
| Drunk | 368.9 | 13.7% |
| Everlast | 84.0 | 0.1% |
| Mini | 373.9 | 0.1% |
| Other | 34.8 | 0.2% |
| Party | 710.5 | 39.9% |
| Summons | 253.3 | 20.3% |
| Sweet | 1525.5 | 24.7% |
| Weapon | 115.2 | 1.0% |
| Totals | 3466.2 | 100.0% |
Details[edit]
| Item | Expected value | Type of item | Market value | Number of times dropped | Drop rate for the item |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter's Ale x10 | 53.1 | Drunk | 1000 | 1099 | 5.31% |
| Aged Hunter's Ale x10 | 154.0 | Drunk | 3000 | 1063 | 5.13% |
| Keg of Aged Hunter's Ale | 161.8 | Drunk | 5000 | 670 | 3.24% |
| Champagn Poppers x10 | 60.8 | Party | 1250 | 1007 | 4.86% |
| Bottle Rockets x10 | 60.8 | Party | 1250 | 1007 | 4.86% |
| Sparklers x10 | 62.9 | Party | 1250 | 1042 | 5.03% |
| Crate of Fireworks x5 | 57.4 | Party | 1875 | 634 | 3.06% |
| Disco Ball x3 | 74.5 | Party | 2625 | 588 | 2.84% |
| Jar of Honey x10 | 123.5 | Sweet | 2500 | 1023 | 4.94% |
| Honeycombs x10 | 59.7 | Sweet | 1250 | 989 | 4.78% |
| Green Rock Candy x5 | 71.0 | Sweet | 1500 | 980 | 4.73% |
| Blue Rock Candy x5 | 387.2 | Sweet | 7500 | 1069 | 5.16% |
| Red Rock Candy x5 | 884.1 | Sweet | 17500 | 1046 | 5.05% |
| Mysterious Summoning Stone x5 | 183.3 | Summons | 1250 | 3037 | 14.67% |
| Mercantile Summoning Stone x5 | 69.9 | Summons | 1250 | 1158 | 5.59% |
| Mysterious Tonic x5 | 356.6 | Party | 2500 | 2953 | 14.26% |
| Cottontail Tonic x5 | 37.5 | Party | 750 | 1036 | 5.00% |
| Everlasting Cottontail Tonic | 60.9 | Everlast | 140000 | 9 | 0.04% |
| Mini Gwen Doll | 153.8 | Mini | 455000 | 7 | 0.03% |
| Mini Yakkington | 174.5 | Mini | 301000 | 12 | 0.06% |
| Mini Brown Rabbit | 45.6 | Mini | 105000 | 9 | 0.04% |
| Vampiric Dragon Sword | 38.6 | Weapon | 20000 | 40 | 0.19% |
| Traveler's Bo Staff | 26.1 | Weapon | 10000 | 54 | 0.26% |
| Traveler's Walking Stick | 22.2 | Weapon | 10000 | 46 | 0.22% |
| Icy Dragon Sword | 19.1 | Weapon | 12000 | 33 | 0.16% |
| Ascalon Razor | 9.2 | Weapon | 5000 | 38 | 0.18% |
| Moss Spider Egg | 34.8 | Other | 15000 | 48 | 0.23% |
| Everlasting Crate of Fireworks | 23.2 | Everlast | 60000 | 8 | 0.04% |
| Totals | 3466.2 | Totals | 20,705 | 100% |
