User:Tennessee Ernie Ford/Shortcuts/IotW Predictions

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How much are zoins worth? ~0.2–1.2 / (But silvers sell for 2k.) (©2011 Shameless self-promotion division.) How much are GotTs worth? ~4 in tradeable goods. (They currently trade for up to 5k.) (©2011 Shameless self-promotion division.) How much are Ministerial Commendations worth? 1  200 –2  500 each (Depending on lockbox drop rates.) (©2011 Shameless self-promotion division.)

Now collecting (Refresh) (Wartower.de on Nicholas' current locale) (Last article update: 07:25, 3 Jul 2012 (UTC))

Item of the Week Predictions

Using this article to farm

Prediction: Nick will ask for the same items as he did originally; only the order will be scrambled.
(The fact that he requested Mandragor Root Cake suggests that ANet didn't bother to alter the most annoying-to-farm requests.)

• Save the items (and quantities) found on the Remaining Locations article or on Kanda's similar guide.
• If you don't have 100+ slots available, focus on hard-to-farm items (listed below); save room by tossing easily-found items (e.g. Charr Carvings).

Background

Nick has started a new cycle.

• His 138th request was the same as his first, but his dialogue suggested changes.
• 22 of 22 requests in the new cycle are exact matches (or near enough) to those in the first cycle: same coordinates, item/count, and dialogue. (The sole exception is the first week's request, which included notably different dialogue.)

Recent activity

• Current week of current cycle: 22
• Number of weeks matching an original request: 22
• Number of times Nick has differed from the original cycle: 0 (Specifically: altered request or location; does not include minor changes to dialogue or Nick's orientation.)

Variations from original cycle

• 30 Jan 2012: Mantid Pincers — moved to a more sensible location than original.
• 9 Jan 2012: Azure Remains — minor dialogue change
• 5 Dec 2011: Red Iris Flowers — Major dialogue change only (befitting the resetting of the cycle).

Most annoying

These requests are remembered as being among the most annoying (not counting any rare materials).

#	Item	Campaign	Region	Area	Notes	Map
1	Bottle of Vabbian Wine	Nightfall	Vabbi	Vehtendi Valley
1	Chromatic Scale	Eye of the North	Far Shiverpeaks	Ice Cliff Chasms	in Gwen's garden
1	Diamond Djinn Essence	Nightfall	Vabbi	The Hidden City of Ahdashim
1	Dragon Root	Factions	Echovald Forest	Drazach Thicket
1	Geode	Nightfall	Vabbi	Yatendi Canyons
1	Guardian Moss	Factions	The Jade Sea	Maishang Hills	west of Eredon Terrace
1	Keen Oni Talon	Factions	The Jade Sea	Silent Surf
1	Pillaged Goods	Nightfall	Vabbi	Holdings of Chokhin
1	Roaring Ether Heart	Nightfall	Vabbi	The Mirror of Lyss
1	Ruby Djinn Essence	Nightfall	The Desolation	The Alkali Pan
1	Sapphire Djinn Essence	Nightfall	Vabbi	Resplendent Makuun	next to Bokka Amphitheatre
1	Sentient Lodestone	Nightfall	Kourna	Bahdok Caverns
1	Skull Juju	Factions	Echovald Forest	The Eternal Grove (explorable area)
1	Truffle	Factions	Echovald Forest	Morostav Trail
1	Water Djinn Essence	Nightfall	The Desolation	Turai's Procession	in the west
2	Cobalt Talons	Nightfall	Vabbi	Vehjin Mines
2	Roaring Ether Claws	Nightfall	Vabbi	Garden of Seborhin
2	Rot Wallow Tusks	Factions	Kaineng City	Pongmei Valley	near The Afflicted Hakaru
2	Sentient Spores	Nightfall	Kourna	Sunward Marches
3	Black Pearls	Factions	The Jade Sea	Archipelagos
3 5	Bog Skale Fins 5 per Herring	Prophecies	Kryta	Scoundrel's Rise [Twin Serpent Lakes]
3	Bolts of Linen	Prophecies	Northern Shiverpeaks	Traveler's Vale	next to Iron Horse Mine
3	Branches of Juni Berries	Factions	Kaineng City	Bukdek Byway	next to Marketplace
3	Skree Wings	Nightfall	Vabbi	Forum Highlands
3	Soul Stones	Factions	Kaineng City	Raisu Palace (explorable area)
5	Forgotten Trinket Boxes	Factions	Shing Jea Island	Minister Cho's Estate (explorable area)	in the east

Patterns from the original cycle

Acquisition patterns

Totals	Item type	Local	Non-local	Notes
5	Trophy Derivative	5	0	Items exchanged for a trophy (Bowl of Skalefin Soup, Drake Kabob, Herring, Mandragor Root Cake, Pahnai Salad)
9	Merchandise (Includes rare materials)	1	8	Avail via NPC. (Rare mats are classified as non-local since they could not be reliably farmed in-zone, except for Amber.) (Dwarven Ale was not available in the the local zone.)
6	Salvage item	6	0	(Charr Hide, Luminous Stone, Roaring Ether Heart, Maguuma Spider Web, Pillaged Goods) (Bottle of Vabbian Wine, farmed locally; labeled as Salvage item instead of derivative b/c it can be farmed directly.)
1	Quest item	0	1	(Branch of Juni Berries is not available in Factions)
116	Trophy	111	5	(Non-locals: Red Iris Flower, Chromatic Scale, Gloom Seed, Phantom Residue; counting Enslavement Stone as foreign since it cannot be farmed in Nick's zone.)
137	Totals	123	14	Non-local items cannot be farmed in Nick's location. They include: 5 trophies, all but 2 items from NPCs, the only quest item, and Red Iris Flowers.

Statistics

• Local trophies account for 80.9% of all requests.
  • 89.8% of items are found in Nick's zone (although not always the best place to farm).
  • 84.6% of items are trophies.

Nick's patterns

• Nick seems interested in hatching a Black Moa Chick: He has asked for the Juni Berry branch, skree wings (for nesting material), Bog Skale Fins & Herring, and Spiritwood. (He himself has a plentiful collection of honeycombs.) That leaves only Moa Eggs (hardened or not), Volcanic Rock, and Steel. He also requested Enslavement Stones, which might be useful in convincing the Dredge to help him safely navigate Sorrow's Furnace.
• He asked for half of the Canthan New Years banquet ingredients (Nick requested 11 of the 22 possibles: Alpine Seed, Azure Crest, Azure Remains, Celestial Essence, Dragon Root, Guardian Moss, Icy Lodestone, Kraken Eye, Naga Hide, Tangled Seed, and Truffle).
• He has some special hatred for Djinni (or love for their drops), having collected Diamond, Ruby, Sapphire, and Water Djinn Essence. (Somehow Immolated Djinn were spared.)
• He loves feathery items (Feathered Avicara Scalps, Feathered Caromi Scalps, plain ol' Feathered Scalps, Frosted Griffon Wings, and Skree Wings), although he didn't choose Iridescent Griffon Wings, Feathered Crests, or Fledgling Skree Wings .

Notes

See also

Check out User:Kanda/Nicholas and Guild Wiki — I follow (and borrow) heavily from the first and use the latter to help identify patterns.

Thank yous

• User:Kanda, who was the first to provide a useful model for suggesting what to store.
• User:Chieftain Alex, who pointed out (and often corrected) terrible typos and errors caused when I copied from Excel to Wiki.
• User:Leviticus Lo, who refactored the presentation after Nick started collected Bog Skale Fins, even though he had already collected its derivative.
• ZeeWabbit for figuring out how Nick might convince the Dredge to help.
• Gaudy Gourd God for pointing out that Nick didn't choose Feathered Crests.
• Various anonymous contributors for comments and keeping my data up-to-date.

Permission to edit

Brain Fart This material needs all the help it can get. (I'm sure I meant something mo' better.)

OK to edit You have permission to edit this page as long as you respect its intent. (I reserve the right to revert.)