User talk:Kanda/Nicholas

Start

Nicholas has now visited enough areas to allow some speculation on what he will collect on remaining areas, hasn't he? Well, I compiled a first analysis on my user page (truth is, it did not seem wise to add this amount of data on this already long talk page). Feel free to discuss it, especially if it allows for more accuracy. Kanda 08:15, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

Your predictions assume that he collects trophies every time. But so far, 18 out of 82 times (22%) he has been collecting rare crafting materials, consumables or stackable salvage items. Furthermore, he doesn't always collect a trophy from the region where he is (From memory I can mention Gloom Seeds and Chromatic Scales). Finally, he has only asked for 64 of the 235 trophies in the game so far. --Manassas 11:36, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

Hence the abundance of 'most likely' ^^. I've added a note about it, but I have to take 4 cases out of your numbers: those when he wanted an item that could be obtained by trading local trophies. The rare materials and off-zone items remain, though, but are not really predictable as far as my skill goes. Kanda 12:34, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

You forgot the 5 times he has asked for salvage items. --Manassas 13:50, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

Such as Charr Hide, Luminous Stone, Roaring Ether Heart, Maguuma Spider Web and Pillaged Goods, indeed. Not exactly forgetting them, in fact I did include salvage items (except foe armors and half-digested things). For whatever reason I always considered them as trophies. Now that you say it I'll look at the list again, maybe I missed one or another. Kanda 14:33, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

Found 8 of them. Added them, along with a part about salvage items in the hypotheses.Kanda 15:07, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

There are a lot more, the list is here: http://wiki.guildwars.com/wiki/Category:Stackable_salvage_items --Manassas 15:11, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

Thanks for the list. Added them all, except again for disgusting stuff (I assume he will never collect that, until he does)Kanda 17:09, 8 November 2010 (UTC)

I don't know if you want more references, but I compiled a list of all trophies, rare mat, etc. that exist and whether Nick asked for them. I didn't know that you had made a list too, otherwise I would have used your info to build my list. I think that the work you've done can complement mine and I am ready to let somebody else do the heavy lifting for future modifications (and/or adding it to the wiki). http://guildwars.incgamers.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5671536&postcount=2582 Zahra 14:47, 10 November 2010 (UTC)

A quite exhaustive work indeed. I'll see which locations I can add from my list. As for the translation in wiki-layout, I generated almost all this page automatically using the 'concatenate' function. Kanda 15:54, 15 November 2010 (UTC)

Kanda, you may want to make note of incidents where Nick has asked for 2 different trophies from the same foe. Rogueonion 16:12, 15 November 2010 (UTC)

I have added a line in the hypotheses. Kanda 18:21, 15 November 2010 (UTC)

Gz on Soul Stone

Soul stone is on your list as most likely. Well done.  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 18:08, 15 November 2010 (UTC)

Yes! This one was easy however. Kanda 18:21, 15 November 2010 (UTC)

Gz on Elemental Dust

Another successful prediction. (I probably would have missed it as likely, since Nick hasn't shown any inclination to travel to underground locations, such as Battle Depths.)  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 17:45, 29 November 2010 (UTC)

Well, he did visit the Undercity, so it would not be the first time.Kanda 20:02, 6 December 2010 (UTC)

Items that have appeared since this page is up

Have you considered sorting those based on likelihood? (Rather than the order that Nick requested them)  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 20:09, 14 March 2011 (UTC)

I could. Is there a particular benefit? Kanda 17:26, 21 March 2011 (UTC)

The cycle page already has the nick-request order. Sorting by likelihood might offer some insight into whether there are other patterns (and makes it easier to compare with what's left). On the how useful is it to people 1-10 scale, it's probably about a 2.5 (whereas this page is about 11.5).  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 18:01, 21 March 2011 (UTC)

Alright then. Better? Kanda 19:10, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

Awesome! (TEF moves the rating of this page from 11.5 [out of 10 possible] to 12.)  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 19:29, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

Still not enough. How about some chart of the remaining trophies? Kanda 20:27, 22 March 2011 (UTC)

Um, how about super awesome. That's got to be worth an extra .5 TEFmarks. Robdalf 14:33, 20 April 2011 (UTC)

Probabilities over 100%

How are these % probabilities calculated? Due to the fact that an event's probability cannot be greater than 100% (by definition of percent), I think that this page does not getting all the respect that it rightfully deserves. I hesitate to suggest a fix without knowing the calculation method. --War_Pig5 17:06, 2 May 2011 (UTC)

It's really a ratio of # of areas that contain the specific trophy to the number of available trophies. For example, if trophy A is the only trophy in two zones, then the ratio would be 2:1. He could call it 100% (sticking to the technical definition of probabilities as you describe it) or 200%, indicating that it's more likely that trophy A will show up than some trophy B that is the only item available for a single zone.

Given that Nick sometimes likes to request non-trophy items, it's not a crazy way to go. Kanda could call it, likelihood or Kanda's predictive ratio or some such, but probability has the right connotation, too.  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 17:26, 2 May 2011 (UTC)

Okay, I found it: "adding these scores." Combining these probabilities by simple addition is not mathematically correct, but based on the other things I read there, I infer that you don't want to fix it. Also, using your method, I calculate that the probability that you already knew this was 101%. --War_Pig5 18:55, 2 May 2011 (UTC)

LoL, War Pig.  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 19:04, 2 May 2011 (UTC)

Oh, I am willing to consider any equation that would make the probabilities more accurate. I just did not find the time nor the brain power to find the right equation myself. Kanda 11:03, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

As above: you could call it likelihood instead of probability (since the former doesn't have a technical definition). I'm partial to Kanda's Predictive Ratio though. You (and I) believe that Nick will definitely request items with a KPR >=1 unless he doesn't collect a trophy. (I suppose you could reduce the probability by 12% to get a truer KPR, based on the fact that Nick has collected local trophies 88% of the time.)  — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 11:11, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

Nice update (However, what do I have to do to convince you to go with KPR? ;-) — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 20:15, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

First I'm trying to figure out how to teach Excel to tell me what the actual probabilities are. So far... not easy. The only way I can think of is the base equation of probability.

Also : Likelihood/KPR>=1 does not mean that probability is 100%. The best example (for now) is Mossy Mandibles: 100% L/KPR and only 71% probability. Without even taking 88% into account. Kanda 20:28, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

In reality, nothing is 100% probable, except in the past tense. Before an event, the best that you can say is that you have no reason to expect any other result. For example, in theory, a die will land displaying a number between 1 and 6; in reality, it could land on an edge, a corner...or fail to land at all — we don't account for that in the mathematical models.

Monte Carlo (gory detailed version)

Your current model is simple and accurate enough for another 8 months; we're not trying to send a rocketship to the moon. However, if you want to get more advanced, then you could use excel to create a model that took all the remaining trophies/zones into account in more detail: assume that...

1. Nick will appear in the zones you have listed 1x and will select a trophy from that zone with equal likelihood.
2. When a trophy is picked, you will remove it and the zone from the list of possibles.
3. You will also decrement the remaining count for any other trophies (in that zone); if the count is zero, they are also removed.
4. You can also take into account the non-local request by creating a 12% chance of something showing up not on the list (which slightly changes the remaining likelihoods).

Then, you can run a monte carlo simulation (in excel) for the remaining set of visits and repeat that scenario an arbitrary number of times. Count the number of times each trophy shows up across all the runs and divide by the number of runs...and voila.

Simplified probability

An easier way of getting close to the same idea is to add up all of the likelihood numbers, divide by the sum of all the likelihoods. That can be safely called a probability: the ratios will (by definition) add up to 100%. The monte carlo above will give you somewhat different numbers; this method over-emphasizes items that appear in multiple zones and under-emphasizes those that appear in only a single zone.

But neither method gives your readers any more information, really. The only thing people really need to know is: try to keep everything on the list. If you can't, merch only the items with the lower KPR numbers. Everything else is just fun for those of us who like discussing Big Theories. The order of items isn't likely to change (noticeably). — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 21:02, 4 May 2011 (UTC)

I Love You

This theorycrafting is amazing 24.78.131.249 21:27, 9 May 2011 (UTC)

issues

Feathered Crest is still on the main list, but I think it should be removed because it is now being collected. Any thoughts on moving this list out of user-space or otherwise inviting more help from collaborators?--War_Pig5 20:33, 27 June 2011 (UTC)

oops. I confused a Scalp with a Crest.--War_Pig5 20:38, 27 June 2011 (UTC)

• Indeed ; Sensali give both crests and scalps depending on the area.
• As for moving the list out of user space. The issue is that the numerical data -likelihood and all that- is a personal estimation and not facts (they are not even real probabilities). So I cannot simply put them on an official page. As per the rules, however, anyone is free to take whatever they find useful; here is where I will be updating things, though.
• It is not that I am against help from other contributors; however, what I display here is the front-end (visible) part of a more complex work that revolves around Excel sheets and other unreadable stuff. So either I have to explain the whole thing, or I cannot copy/paste anymore due to (probably useful) contribution. Either way this is more than I am willing to invest, unfortunately (actually playing the game and fetching the trophies takes time, too). Kanda 21:55, 27 June 2011 (UTC)

Sage Lands

I notice that you don't list Ebon Spider Legs in the Sage Lands though there are a significant number of spiders there. --Valshia 17:54, 4 July 2011 (UTC)

Good catch. According to Sage Lands, Maguuma Spiders do drop them. I've added it back to my lists. Thanks! — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 18:11, 4 July 2011 (UTC)

Oops. Added back, I don't know why I missed them (and more importantly, now I don't know what else I have missed); thank you very much. Now I just wish I had read this last week and not sold my stock. Kanda 23:42, 11 July 2011 (UTC)

About Scoundrel's Rise...

I believe you've missed a possible drop for Nicholas to request of which has yet to be. Unless I've missed something (which, to be honest, is fairly possible), he could ask for some Bog Skale Fins. Edit: Just noticed these aren't in your list of items. Leviticus Lo 02:44, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

I dunno about User:Kanda, but I dropped BSFs from my predictions because Nick asked for Herring, which required collecting 5 fins each. (A lot of people found that one annoying, too.) — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 02:51, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

Mm... That's true. Checked the other Collector items, and it's the same for those trophies as well. I suppose that's why you both left them all off then.

Assuming he doesn't decide he wants those trophies and excluding any rare materials, that'd only leave Half-Eaten Blobs, wouldn't it? Is there a reason as to why these aren't included in either list as well? Leviticus Lo 03:18, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

"Stackable salvage items are included, except for half-digested/eaten/whatever things. ", which is why HE-blobs aren't on the list. Of the 121 items collected to date, only 5 (Charr Hide, Luminous Stone, Roaring Ether Heart, Maguuma Spider Web, Pillaged Goods) are salvage items of any kind. (You'll also notice that we've never included farmable quest items either, e.g. Juicy Heket Legs, Ore Ingots, or even Bison Championship Tokens, even though Nick once asked for Juni Berry branches.)

Hmmn. Maybe we should include half-eaten stuff; they not really that different from the other stackable salvage items. — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 03:34, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

It probably wouldn't hurt anything to add them. At the very least, it'll just add some more possible items to the list of what he might collect. Whether or not he will (and what he'd want any for) is another matter entirely. xD

Though it's not like he's never collected any questionable items before....

Also, I figure the only reason Branches of Juni Berries were included was because they're a quest reward for a repeatable quest. Juicy Heket Legs and Ore Ingots seem unlikely because those items are only available when their specific quest is active and the items become unavailable once you've gathered enough to finish the quest (or at least Juicy Heket Legs do that... I've yet to actually do Gathering Resources). Sure, a person could drop some on the ground while the quest is still active and get more, but I don't think any of the items would ever make that a requirement. Also, She Hungers isn't repeatable so that would add the necessity to have a person that hasn't completed the quest if you have already.

However, I could see Bison Championship Tokens as a slight possibility, even more since Norrdart Domains is still available, but it still seems fairly unlikely. Leviticus Lo 04:35, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

I knew you would notice that JHLs are only available from a non-repeatable quest (although, they are quite farmable in Bogroot Growths while that is active). However, Gathering Resources is as repeatable as Insatiable Appetite (arguably more so, since you aren't at the whim of the animal's AI).

As for Ribcages and Heket Tongues: meh, those are just trophy items; I don't even see an unreasonable argument for leaving out any normal drop from the list.

Still, I am not sure why Kanda or I are so sure that Nick won't ask for any half-eaten or -digested gunk (since even the Canthan New Year chefs want that for the celestial feast). Thanks for note — I'm going to rethink the list. — Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 05:00, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

The only reason I'd consider the Branch of Juni Berries more "acceptable" than Ore Ingots would be that it's a reward for finishing a quest rather than a drop used to finish one.

The Ribcages and Tongues (as well as some other items he's requested) were just used as examples of something gross/weird/disturbing/etc... that just seems unusual to request to have. No problems with them being requested.

Alright then. Want some help with finding where each of those can be found? Either way, I'm glad to be of some form of help... or whatever it is I did. xD Leviticus Lo 05:34, 9 August 2011 (UTC)

It was an intuition ; I simply took as granted, for the sake of simplicity, that these half-whatever things would not appear. Of coure, should they appear, I would count it as a failure in my predictions (and maybe put the others on the list). I would have done the same with all salvagable items, but some of them had already appeared.

I thought of erasing Dolyak Hides as a possibility as well, but since they are on the list for so long, I just put a note about them.

As for the quest trophies, I did not include them, and I counted Branches of Juni Berries as one of the things that were not on my list (or would not have been should the list have existed at the time) ; just like Dwarven Beer or rare materials. Kanda 16:17, 15 August 2011 (UTC)

Already collected items

Looks like this week is a big "HAH!" directed at TEF and Kanda. :P 198.160.96.7 16:32, 17 October 2011 (UTC)

I guess Alice&Sven was/were right: Nic has gone evil. Or at least, he got tired of becoming predictable. I hope he has learnt enough to surprise us after he has finished.

However, it does not really make these predictions obsolete (him finishing his turn of Tyria will). It is an already-asked item, sure, but in an area where there was nothing left anyway. Kanda 17:08, 17 October 2011 (UTC)

Of the previous 130 visits, 104 were locally-farmable trophies. He's also asked five times for derivatives of local trophies, so perhaps Kanda & I should restore those to the list... But, oh, that only applies to Iboga Petals→Pahnai Salad.

So, it's only a small HAH!. – Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 17:16, 17 October 2011 (UTC)

Interesting.... I must have psychic powers! :O I predict we will need to collect Mandragor Roots for Nicholas.... in 10 weeks! :P

Anyway... xD

Since he does collect trophies used for previously required items, I've been compiling a list of the other items and where they can be found.

So far, I've got:

Sunward Marches - Mandragor Roots, Chunks of Drake Flesh, Sentient Spores

Cliffs of Dohjok - Skale Fins

Both Sunward Marches and Cliffs of Dohjok - Iboga Petals

*Arbor Bay - Patches of Simian Fur, Incubus Wings, Sentient Vines

*Even though these can be found in Arbor Bay, he'll likely want Krait Skins since he requested those when he bugged.

I don't wanna mess with your page or add a bunch of items without your say-so, so it's your choice if you want them added. Just thought I'd gather them up in case. :3 Leviticus Lo 12:59, 19 October 2011 (UTC)

Thank you for the list (and Nicholas seems to have liked it, because he picked his choice from your list rather than from the rare materials); however, I think we are done with the nothing-left areas now. I hope he will go back to collecting new items.

As a matter of fact, my list still stands, if we take into account that when nothing new remained in an area, I officially 'did not know' what to expect.

I will add items for Battledepths in the case it gets a visit, however. Kanda 16:36, 24 October 2011 (UTC)

What...

What are we going to do when (if?!?) Nicholas repeats his request cycle? Think of the oodles of free time we have when we don't have to update these pages any longer ;-) – Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 22:05, 7 November 2011 (UTC)

Well the question is, will he start again with each location in the same order, or will he pick a new order? In the first case, I guess a table with which trophy will be requested in how-much-time-and-counting is in order ; in the second case, there is much to salvage from our pages. Either way, we have a future! Kanda 22:18, 7 November 2011 (UTC)

I just want to say well done on what you guys have put together over the last couple of years, +1 kudos. Are you considering adding this to the dailys page, or creating something similar for weeklys to pre-empt the search (assuming it cycles)? 188.222.77.162 12:47, 23 November 2011 (UTC)

We need to wait to see what pattern (if any) Nick might follow. Then, yeah, it will get added to the upcoming predictions. (Also: thanks.) – Tennessee Ernie Ford (TEF) 13:15, 23 November 2011 (UTC)

Indeed. As soon as it is no more our prediction only, with our hypotheses and shortcuts, it belongs to the main namespace. What remains to be seen for now is whether it cycles or not. Kanda 07:47, 24 November 2011 (UTC)

Allow me to add my thanks and sincere appreciation for the pages on which you and TEF have worked so hard. We missed red irises, but my wife and I have hit every Nick since then (and made more than enough farming to pay for our Nine Rings habit). Mondays have always been "Nick Days" at our house. It has been a great ride and I don't know any other pages that we have scrutinized as closely as we have yours. From the bottom of our hearts, thank you. Sjhshh 21:17, 3 December 2011 (UTC)

You are welcome. It has been a great pleasure of mine to share these predictions. I still hope that his schedule is randomized again to keep the special Nick feeling, even though his creator moved on long ago. Kanda 15:52, 5 December 2011 (UTC)